Iranians marching in Tehran cheer at an airstrike ahead of them.
1,530 words
In the run up to the 2026 Iran War, I described how the most straightforward and optimistic path to victory for the US was:
- A flawless conventional military victory, followed by
- A successful Persian insurrection, followed by
- Pahlavi running a corruption free illiberal democracy.
I generously gave each of these conditions a 10% chance of happening, and thus a 1/1000 chance of success overall. The first condition of a flawless military victory already has been an epic fail. As I described here, the current debacle was foreseeable by every reader and gamer on the Dissident Right, but not to the busybodies of the Pentagon because they are uncultured.
Secondly, an insurrection was necessary to effectuate regime change without boots on the ground. But hoping for an insurrection was as delusional as hoping for a conventional military victory. Much of this miscalculation was actually deception because for Israel to win it only needs to destabilize Iran, not build a functioning country. But it didn’t help that the Pentagon busybodies are uncultured swine, either.
I am a former airborne linguist, and we had it drilled into us that it’s not enough to know a language, we also need to know its associated culture. Yet despite talking about how culture matters, the American regime has no grasp of Iranian culture. Thus they projected their own degenerate culture onto the Iranians and assumed there would be an insurrection. This is ironic because I am not an expert on Iranian culture, but one only needs a cursory understanding of Iranian and broader human culture to see that an insurrection was improbable.
Weeks before the war, many of the anti-regime rioters were killed or imprisoned after Trump and Pahlavi incited them to overthrow their government but couldn’t marshal forces in time to help them. It was the Persian equivalent of January 6. Since this is part of a larger pattern of ZOG and Trump throwing people under the bus, even the troublesome Kurds have refused to rise up. They know better than to volunteer to be cannon fodder. For example, Syria’s Kurds warned Iranian Kurds not to rise up after ZOG abandoned them after years of cooperation. I previously warned that Trump’s failure to reward friends or punish enemies would catch up to him. I’m now glad he failed to heed my warning.
Furthermore, the Iranians are unlikely to risk plunging their country into a civil war, insurgency, or partition just because they don’t like the ruling regime or having to abide by a dress code. For example Talabani, president of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, told Piers Morgan that a large uprising inside Iran has not occurred despite heavy attacks because many Iranians fear instability similar to what happened in Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq. For reference, the Watson School of International and Public Affairs estimates that “940,000 people were killed by direct post-9/11 war violence in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, and Pakistan between 2001-2023” including 432,000 civilians. The Watson School estimates another 3.6-3.8 million indirect deaths from the destruction of economies, healthcare systems, infrastructure and the environment.
Moreover, the reasons for the 1979 Iranian Revolution are well remembered. The ruling Iranian regime may have a corruption problem, but it’s eclipsed by the Shah’s corruption. The previous Shah, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, was also a slave to the British, persecuted ethnic minorities, and his secret police were notorious for executing and torturing dissidents.
And while enforcement was relaxed under Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, his father Reza Shah Pahlavi ironically enforced a strict Western dress code which outlawed traditional clothing. This was especially hard for Iranian women, many of whom stayed indoors or were beaten due to non-compliance, with some even committing suicide. Taken in this light, Iran’s current dress code is just another example of what goes around comes around (imagine if the government forbade professional men from wearing ties). And as during Mohammed Reza Pahlavi’s reign, the Islamic Republic’s enforcement has been relaxed. And while the hijab does not belong in the West, it’s not that big of a deal. In fact, migrant women in the West often wear a hijab to flex on their host nations. And practically every society has had a dress code of some kind, even if it wasn’t legislated, such as America in the 1950s. Expecting Iranians to side with a foreign invader over a dress code is nonsensical.
Let’s imagine if the roles were reversed. Despite hating liberal democracy and Dark Brandon (along with long pants and long sleeves as the ancient Romans did), if China and/or Russia had invaded America, I would not have collaborated with them. Siding with a foreign invader is a good way to permanently wreck your credibility, which is particularly problematic given that many occupations are temporary. But I wouldn’t have fought for Biden either. I would have fought the Eurasian invaders on my own terms through guerrilla warfare while allowing the invaders and federals to bleed themselves dry in pitched battles until I was ready to make my move against both. This is exactly what Mao Zedong did during the Japanese invasion of China. It’s likely what any would be regime changer in Iran would do too. In fact, a Baloch tribe declared:
We used to live off smuggling, and our rifles were aimed at the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. But after the war that the U.S. and Israel waged against us, everything changed. . . . Today our rifles are alongside the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and we have become their soldiers.
It’s hard for people who conceive of countries as economic zones to understand blood and soil. Moreover, it’s easy to paint the war as a civilizational struggle between the Epstein class and Tradition because it is.
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All this was further exacerbated by how the US bombed a girls’ school with two tomahawk cruise missiles on the first day of the war. And given how many of them were daughters of IRGC officials, it looks intentional. Whether this was a Purim blood sacrifice, an AI targeting glitch, or incompetence arising from the US military’s Brazilian demographics, it permanently destroyed whatever slim chance of regime change there was. Imagine if the above-mentioned Eurasianist horde began their invasion by bombing dozens of leaders from across the political spectrum, causing acid rain to fall on Houston by destroying oil refineries, and finally blowing up 175 American school children followed by a demand of unconditional surrender. It would have inspired fanatical resistance, much as with how Iranians are cheering amidst airstrikes while marching in Tehran. And that’s despite America being a 250-year-old multicultural strip mall versus an ancient civilization like Iran.
Part of ZOG’s cowardly optimism that decapitating Iran’s leadership would cause regime change is that ZOG is overly centralized despite their talk of centralized command/decentralized execution. Thus they cannot conceive how incredibly anti-fragile Iran’s decentralized command, execution, and production is.
Furthermore, ZOG selects hyperactive idiots for its leadership as opposed to exceptional men. For example, Ali Larijani, the current Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, published three books on Kantian philosophy. I would not be surprised if the average Iranian major is smarter, wiser, and more honorable than the average US general. Selecting quality leaders (who are also prepared to die) makes Iran resilient to decapitation strikes because they have a large pool of talent to rapidly promote people from.
ZOG’s historical ignorance is probably a factor too. History has several failed decapitation strikes. For example, the Persians assassinating the generals of Xenophon’s ten thousand Greek mercenaries backfired: by killing Clearchus, they created ten thousand of him. Sulla’s proscriptions may have backfired by breeding resentment. And as Ronald Syme describes in his book The Roman Revolution, martyring Caesar did nothing to end the Caesarian party because it was an anti-fragile patronage network. And while not a decapitation strike, Goebbels and Hitler thought that FDR’s death would knock the US out of the war, which was foolish given that America was ruled by a firmly entrenched Judeo-capitalist mafia.
But the most striking examples come from Christian history. Almost every major saint died violently and is depicted with a symbol of his death. That “the blood of the martyrs is the seed of the Church” applies to Shia Islam as much as Catholicism. Perhaps Hegseth overlooked this fact because he is a Judeo-Christian heretic who exalts Jewish lies over centuries of Church history.
Much of the hope that a decapitation strike would cause regime change was driven by the recent success in extraditing Maduro from Venezuela. But Iran and Venezuela are in no way comparable aside from being allied with Russia and China. Venezuela runs on gay race communism and destroyed its white middle class. It has a low national IQ. It has no tradition of jihad. Its weapon systems are junk and its firmly within the US’s sphere of influence. Beating up Venezuela is like bragging about beating a video game tutorial on easy mode.
Any reader or gamer on the Dissident Right could have told the regime that a Persian insurrection was as unlikely as a conventional military victory. But nobody asked us.
20 comments
The history of at least two last centuries teach us that the leaders of all those “oppositionaries”, “rebels”, “freedom fighters”, etc. belong mostly to the same ethnical tribe, and are mostly financed by one international trading corporation with the seat on one big island off shore of Europe.
Greenland?
No.
Is it Iceland? 🙃
Thus they projected their own degenerate culture onto the Iranians and assumed there would be an insurrection.
I am assuming you are referring to the 1968 marches. Even that chaos resulted in a conservative backlash. Or do you mean the military industrial complex? Or the Epstein cabal?
Maybe the Trump regime and Israel are (or should that be is?) just lying about wanting Iranian regime change and actually know that it won’t work. Maybe they just want to create another Iraq situation and believe if Israel by default gets its wishes, that in itself is seen as a win by the Epstein clique. Maybe they want the Azeris scheming with their coethnics in northern Iran. Having Turks preoccupied with Azerbaijan instead of Israel or even Syria could be a relief for Israeli fears.
Can one even believe Trump’s messaging as it seems to be morphing into becoming a complete replicate in word, deed and motive of the group that echoes through history.
“the American regime has no grasp of Iranian culture. Thus they projected their own degenerate culture onto the Iranians and assumed there would be an insurrection.”
American elites, such as diplomats, academics, and journalists, tend to deal only with another’s country’s cosmopolitan elites living in the major cities, who very often have opinions different than the country’s majority. It was that way for Russia, when American elites assumed that Putin was hugely unpopular and a little economic pressure would topple Putin’s control. That obviously has not happened. Same with Iran; the people protesting the current regime tended to be cosmopolitan elites living in major cities, but the people living in the villages were on Team Khamenei.
It’s sort of the like the famous comment attributed to the late film critic Pauline Kael. She lived in a largely Jewish, ultra-liberal Manhattan bubble. Supposedly she said, “I can’t believe Nixon won. I don’t know anyone who voted for him.” (Some say she got a bad rap, that she actually had more self-awareness than that).
Last year it took 52 days, from March 15 – May 6, to open the Red Sea against the opposition of the Houthis.
In 1999 it took 78 days, from March 24 – June 10, to establish autonomy in Kosovo against the opposition of the Serbs.
In 2011 it took 227 days, from March 19 – October 31, to topple Qaddafi’s regime.
Assuming Iran is no weaker than the Houthis, the Serbs, or Libya, the Pentagon should have planned for at least 2 months to open the Strait of Hormuz, 3 months to establish autonomy in Iranian Kurdistan, and 8 months to topple the regime.
The sanguine predictions that victory could be achieved in a few days, or at most a few weeks, are absurd, unless you think Iran is substantially weaker than the Houthis or Libya.
The Israelis knew, for an absolute fact, that this operation would be far more difficult than that. They deliberately lied to Trump to trick him into starting a war which he couldn’t subsequently back out of. The atrocities committed on day 1 of this war were intended to prevent a negotiated peace.
Trump is mostly surrounded by morons and traitors selected by transition team leader Howard Lutnick, an Epstein associate who voted for Hillary Clinton on 2016.
The only possibility for negotiated peace would be for Trump to fire everyone responsible for this boondoggle, starting with his Middle East envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Howard Lutnick, Marco Rubio, Suzie Wiles, Chris LaCivita, and Pam Bondi, among others, and publicly break with Netanyahu and the entire clique of Israel-First Jewish billionaires.
The Israelis knew, for an absolute fact, that this operation would be far more difficult than that. They deliberately lied to Trump to trick him into starting a war which he couldn’t subsequently back out of. The atrocities committed on day 1 of this war were intended to prevent a negotiated peace.
Absolutely. The Israelis want to get one last op out of the American golem before it ceases to be of use. Dragging America into this war kills two birds with one stone; destabilizing and weakening Iran (objective 1) and pushing America out of the Middle East so Israel can be an independent regional (and eventually global) power (objective 2). Objective 2 is accomplished by A) demonstrating to the Gulf countries that being under America’s military protection is a liability rather than an asset and B) limiting America’s capability to provide this protection by destroying her regional military infrastructure.
Iran will not allow this conflict to end without permanent reduction, if not total removal, of America’s military presence in the Gulf. As this drags on, the Gulf countries themselves will probably start pushing for such an outcome as well. Especially when all the interceptors and THAAD batteries are getting routed to Israel instead of UAE, Qatar or Bahrain.
This is a very interesting take; Colonel Douglas MacGregor has also been suggesting that US influence in the region could be dead. Certainly nobody there is ever going to trust us after we sneak-attacked during negotiations several times. And cavalierly bombing schoolgirls is not a good look internationally.
It appears Trump made a massive error by going along with this. There is no end to bad possibilities that could arise from this debacle. It could be the end of Trump, the Republican Party, and therefore the American Democracy. All the orange idiot had to do was keep us out of wars, reduce both legal and illegal immigration, and conduct mass deportations and he would have gone down as a great national hero. But no, between his fat ego and Jewish influence, he had to go against almost everything he promised. And the US will pay dearly.
I get the sense Trump actually believes Iran will simply lay down their arms and accept a return to a secular dictator instead of a religious one. They’ve been arming for this for decades and screaming death to America every chance they get. Clearly they have no hesitation firing on their neighbors and the neighbors have barely raised a finger in protest. You would think they would have game planned this months or years in advance. It seems more like a shoot from the hip strategy which is doomed to failure. The school strike could be excused if they claim no children should be there on Saturday. Of course that’s a Western trait and it’s not universal. Regardless, I don’t like where this is headed.
You mentioned an AI targeting glitch as a possible explanation for the school bombing. I was wondering if a foreign nation could have hacked into the system to redirect the bombs. Also, the recent US military refuelling plane crashing over Iraq recently may have been caused by a hacking of the aircraft computer system. Just asking questions. Who knows what tech is out there–literally, in outer space.
I wouldn’t be surprised if air crew fatigue from flying non-stop sorties was a factor in the recent crash. The sooner our guys come home the better.
Good article. ZOG assumes its special divine right to inflict whatever it wants. It’s insane. It is evil.
It’s actually laughable to talk about regime change in country x aka What Jews Want.
What actually needs to happen is dezogification, and despite progress, that regime change is going to be very painful and it hasn’t happened yet. It keeps getting set back. This was the downside of Trump and the way Trump’s done this, he appeals to the popular base with genuinely correct directions on some policies, the catch is it’s come with giving ZOG another lifeline.
Dismantling ZOG is non-negotiable.
The Jewish monster we all know about and understand, but after this, I’m also very happy to abolish Christian Zionism and ruthlessly oppress it forever. It should be moved to a terrorist designation with its proponents getting the harshest treatment possible. I’ll leave it at that. It should never have any place in government. And it’s also an automatic intellectual disability signal.
Even those voices who don’t care for Iran – and personally I sympathize with Iran greatly, what terrifies me, is if there is some successful break away white republic for instance, these people will be planning the same for us. It will mean decapitations, murdering generals, thinkers, scientists, anyone who’s a threat. No one can live like this.
Great article! Trump has stated that, “The Iran war will end when I feel it in my bones.” I wonder if he can tell when it is going to rain. 🙃
All this was further exacerbated by how the US bombed a girls’ school with two tomahawk cruise missiles on the first day of the war.
Those dead children were promised to Israel 3,000 years ago, stop being so anti-semitic!
Muslim countries can see the demographic situation in western countries, and extrapolate it out just a decade or two, and see that the worst of the backlash is in the short term. They know whites will be a minority soon, they know that it’s only retarded evangelical boomers that support ZOG, they know they only have to make it through the next five years and the boot will be lifting off their neck. When things are set to get easier for you every year that passes, the more you stick it out. And if you achieve this you’ll be blessed with so much goodwill and legitimacy. The islamists know that if they make it through these rough years as ZOG declines, they’ll receive the laurels of overcoming the greatest superpower in history. The backlash to October 7th in western countries gave the Islamists a fair understanding as to how precarious Israel support actually is.
This is the true consequence of the genocide in Gaza, it laid bare the Great Replacement and its consequences for Israel. I don’t think Israel and ZOG’s behavior are rational assessments, but more a series of copes and wishful thinking that they use to distract themselves from their declining position. The downside of narcissism is that when a comforting narrative gets presented that sates the ego, one selects it over a realistic assessment of the situation. ZOG wants to believe that the regime in Iran is hated because they themselves hate it, and narcissists have a poor understanding of other people’s internal mental state. Jews are incredibly solipsistic, they regard the goyim as tools to use and without actual feelings and motivations of their own.
Great article, David. I love your trenchant, hard-hitting style.
Despite destroying much of Iran’s conventional military, the US under Trump and his fools is facing total strategic loss as of this timestamp.
Iran’s regime is intact; power has been trasferred; the strait is closed; global economic shockwaves have started; and with the killing of 150 grade school children, there has been a catastrophic loss of American moral authority everywhere but Israel and among a handful of GOP, Boomer die hards.
China gets a substantial portion of its oil from Iran, which moves through Kharg Island, which the US is now targeting as of this timestamp. Geopolitics isn’t my swimlane, but I don’t see how the Chinese can accept direct US control of its oil supply. And apparently, Iran has hit an American base on Turkish soil. This is how world wars start.
How much of this is simply hubris/incompetence and how much is deliberate sabotage of America’s regional posture is very much in question. I have no problem believing that the Retard In Chief is just following orders/advice from those around him like he usually does, but his Israeli counterparts are not stupid. Removing US bases from the region and replacing American military guarantees with some sort of regional security framework, such as a militarily independent GCC backed by a nuclearized Saudi monarchy (in turn backed by Pakistani nuclear guarantees and and a strong relationship with China) and some permutation of an Israel-Russia-India alliance would go a long way to fulfill Netanyahu’s stated desire to reduce Israeli dependence on its “special relationship” with Washington.
Militarily weakening America and accelerating its decline would also fulfill longstanding prophecies regarding the fall of Edom/Rome (i.e. the US) prior to the beginning of the messianic age.
Let’s call a spade a spade and call this ‘Operation Jew Coup’
After reading about how Trumpstein is trying to sucker Japan into assisting, it’s funny to note that in Japanese 10-9 can be read phonetically as ‘ju-ku’.
I enjoyed the commentary on your being a linguist for the air force and how you have to know the culture of the language to really know the language. It’s beyond laughable to think that there would be some sort of a legit insurrection after being bombed by both the US and Israel. I’m sure even if there are some people not very thrilled about the Ayatollah and being under the yoke of militant Shia Islam are exponentially not thrilled about being bombed by foreigners.
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