Iranians marching in Tehran cheer at an airstrike ahead of them.
Iranians marching in Tehran cheer at an airstrike ahead of them.
1,530 words
In the run up to the 2026 Iran War, I described how the most straightforward and optimistic path to victory for the US was:
- A flawless conventional military victory, followed by
- A successful Persian insurrection, followed by
- Pahlavi running a corruption free illiberal democracy.
I generously gave each of these conditions a 10% chance of happening, and thus a 1/1000 chance of success overall. (more…)