I’m Changing My Tune About CoronavirusGreg Johnson
The coronavirus pandemic is a complex and changing phenomenon, and so are my thoughts about it.
I can sympathize with the ecologists who think that the Earth has far too many humans and would welcome a pandemic to dramatically reduce our numbers. But not yet. This is not the time, because coronavirus isn’t the killer they’ve been hoping for, and as a member of a race that is already on the path to extinction—extinction as the predictable consequence of political policies and thus genocide—I am fighting for my race against its enemies, not for the planet against humanity.
As a National Populist, I have argued that coronavirus presents us with remarkable metapolitical and political opportunities. So much so, that I have taken to calling it the “globalvirus.” The globalvirus demonstrates that global capitalism, open borders, liberal individualism, multiculturalism, xenophilia, and democracy make nations more vulnerable to deadly pandemics. The countries with protectionist economies, real borders, a commitment to the common good, ethnic homogeneity, healthy xenophobia, and more “authoritarian” regimes are less vulnerable.
Coronavirus has also discredited most of what passes for the Right today in Western societies: namely, various forms of classical liberalism. Classical liberalism comes in two varieties: the moderate and extreme.
The moderate classical liberals are your mainstream Republicans who identify not with America but with capitalism. Their first reaction to the globalvirus was to deny it, because they did not want to interrupt the economy. I’m sure it occurred to them that the globalvirus might well kill a lot of people in America, as it did in China and Italy and Spain. But, in their heart of hearts, these people were gambling that other people would die—old people, poor people, etc.—and they deemed this a small price (for others) to pay to preserve the value of their stock portfolios.
But at least moderate classical liberals believe that there are some circumstances in which government action is legitimate, for instance to bail out big business or to defend the borders of Israel. Thus, reluctantly, some of these people might actually be wrangled into doing something for the American people.
Extreme classical liberals don’t believe it is legitimate for the government to do anything for the common good, because they don’t believe that collectives exist or have interests that are legitimately pursued by the state. Thus their reaction to the globalvirus is the same as their reaction to any other collective problem: simple denial. Denialism comes in two flavors: vanilla economism and tutti frutti conspiracy theories.
Since we have a Republican administration, when intelligence reports about the globalvirus outbreak in China started coming in as early as November, they fell on deaf ears. Apparently there was not a single populist who cared about the American people anywhere to be found in the Trump administration, just business boosters who wanted to protect the economy from people who feared drowning in their own bodily fluids. And, because Republicans are not just greedy and stupid but also cowardly, they were well aware that any attempt to restrict travel from China would be decried as “racism” by the Left. Hence they decided to go with the “It’s just the flu, bro” narrative.
If Hillary Clinton were in office, the result would have been exactly the same, because she is 100% owned by the oligarchy. Her rationalizations would simply have put greater emphasis on anti-racism.
If the United States had a National Populist government that put America First, we might have been spared the human and economic costs of the pandemic by simply locking down travel and screening all people coming from outside the country. But the travel restrictions adopted were too little, too late, and once a certain number of carriers had entered the United States, we only had two choices.
Plan A is to do nothing, in which case millions might get sick, hundreds of thousands might die, and national life, including the economy, would be devastated. Plan B is to shut down the spread of the virus, in which case far fewer people would sicken and die and the nation, including economic life, would bounce back more quickly. The Trump administration adopted Plan B, but an astonishing number of Republicans would have given us Plan A. That is something we National Populists should never forget and never forgive.
Once Plan B was rolled out, the US government needed to mitigate the economic and social costs. I grade their performance D-minus. The establishment that created the crisis by dragging its feet—out of Republican Mammonism and Democratic xenophilia—delivered exactly the relief package you would expect: massive bailouts to big business, massive giveaways to non-whites, and $1,200 and some trickle-down for average white Americans, millions of whom lost their jobs.
But the mere fact that millions of Americans had been thrown out of work was not enough to stop the Right from importing more cheap labor or the Left from importing more refugees. Nor was the shortage of protective face masks enough to stop the US from allowing millions to be bought up and exported by foreigners or simply given to Israel. Our rulers are so committed to replacing Americans with foreigners that they won’t even pretend to put Americans first in a national crisis, and not just any national crisis, one that falls in an election year. They can’t help it. It’s just their nature.
I have no idea how long this pandemic will last and what it will cost in human lives and social, political, and economic chaos. Neither do any of the experts.
But I am certain of one thing. The pandemic will end. Which means that there will be a time when it is right to say “It’s over. Let’s start living again.” When that happens, the accusation that “Republicans are just putting profits over people” will no longer be true. It will be just cheap demagoguery.
Human knowledge is finite. Even the most objective analysts can never reliably call the top or the bottom of curves. And all people have biases. Republicans—whose bias is toward normalcy, complacency, and GDP—will always jump the gun on the back to work date. Democrats—who are addicted to moral indignation and desperate to attack Republicans from every angle—will be ranting about “profits over people” long after the discard date.
National Populists shouldn’t follow them. That’s why I am planning to change my tune.
Of course, things will never really go back to normal. We National Populists can’t allow that. It is up to National Populists to make sure that the new normal incorporates the lessons of the pandemic. We need to manufacture strategic products in our own countries, including drugs and medical equipment. We need paid sick leave for all employees. We need real borders. We need travel bans from plague zones and medical screenings and quarantines for nationals returning home. We need more expensive and less frequent air travel, but we can cushion the impact on the airlines with tens of millions of deportation flights. We need to rebuild social trust and solidarity, so people are willing to sacrifice for the common good. We need a leadership caste that puts our people first and lays plans to do so far into the future.
Unless coronavirus becomes extinct like smallpox, it will also be part of the new normal. Every year, tens of thousands of Americans die in car accidents. But we don’t stop driving, because these deaths are “normal.” Every year, tens of thousands of Americans die of the flu and pneumonia. But we don’t shut down society, because these deaths are “normal.” We factor them in. They are “part of the plan.” I’d like to reduce all these numbers. But none of them will fall to zero. You see, death is normal. There will never be a day when we run out of things to die from.
Once we get used to globalvirus, it will be “part of the plan” as well. But that is not an argument to be complacent about globalvirus today. We need to do our best to destroy this virus before there is any talk of living with it. Nor is it an argument for complacency in the future, because anticipating and mitigating new pandemics should be “part of the plan” as well.
Since the globalvirus pandemic is complex and constantly changing, practically everyone will be right about it at one time or another. But at present practically everyone is wrong because their timing is off. “Interesting times” indeed.
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As the facts change, opinions must change. I opposed the government crack down as I knew it would lead to a disaster for white people with jobs and do little to change the arc of the virus. Like the Hong Kong flu, the Asian flu, the Swine flu and prior pandemics, these things run their course despite our efforts.
That’s all over with now. What’s done is done. The coming depression is an opportunity for sober minded criticism of the prevailing order. Our people will be looking around for sane and thoughtful commentary and organizing efforts. That’s where I focus needs to be now.
Is that the actual Zman above? I based my comment on his excellent recent podcast, which taught me a lot about the Spanish flu and the subsequent Asian and Hong Kong flus.
I believe this epidemic will run its course and end, possibly after an echo spike in the fall. All these flu pandemics were severe for under a year, and then died out with nary a trace in the flu gene populations. SARS, MERS, etc. all followed a similar pattern and died out after a short period, and those are corona viruses also, so covid 19 should be expected to follow a similar pattern. I don’t think it will become endemic.
This is where I am. I’ll admit that it’s a “big brain centrist” take, but there’s no criticism of the neoliberal right that doesn’t warrant an equally harsh criticism of the neoliberal left.
My only caution is in the temptation that so many in our circles are indulging to hold up the Chinese or other communist or semi-communist countries as paragons of nationalist virtue. Even if they got their response to this right, when judged by results, there are a host of other variables that are important to consider. Just as there are rational ways to deal with multiculturalism that don’t require all-out war, there are rational ways to fight a virus that don’t require totalitarian tactics.
Honestly I don’t have a whole lot of criticisms of Trump’s handling of this, outside of the initial denial and the urgency he feels to put his precious economy back together prematurely. I’d certainly be more eager to criticize so-called dissidents who believe the Illuminati created this virus in order to usher in the age of microchip implants or some other nonsense.
“Plan A is to do nothing, in which case millions might get sick, hundreds of thousands might die, and national life, including the economy, would be devastated.”
By now everybody should know the roles played by Gates Foundation, Dr Fauci, media and others in spreading panic, disinformation and outright lies.
The truth is that the coronavirus has mortality rate of 10% of that of a regular, seasonal flu ! The only people who died were those who were already seriously sick or elderly.
Perspectives on the Pandemic | Professor Knut Wittkowski
Sweden Bucks the Hysteria – Refuses to Close its Economy
Now draw your own conclusions.
By now, some Monday Morning Quarterbacks are already calling for Authoritarianism !
Keep it simple and blame globalism and, where appropriate, individual globalists and their golems. But always in the context of globalism.
We don’t need a flood of exegeses about it. We need the newly impoverished to understand Nationalism good, Globalism bad. That should keep everyone busy until at least 2022.
@Inq: The problem isn’t the death rate. That only measures the number of people who die once infected. The problem is the transmission rate of globoviro as a result of the long asymptomatic-but-contagious period of the disease. Anyone who thinks this disease is comparable to the flu in terms of transmissibily does not understand what makes globoviro so dangerous.
So many of ourguys succumbed to hysteria on one side or the other. It’s great to read something written with restraint and perspective.
Billions of people have just learned how to wash their hands properly. If it sticks, infectious diseases will decline.
Hungary is also under “lockdown”. The list of exceptions in the decree goes from A, B, C… down to U. It includes basic necessities such as hair&nails and perfume shopping. Orbán has 4 daughters.
I would like to ask of you to write your thoughts on ‘small-time’ capitalism or ‘personal capitalism’, as opposed to Global Capitalism writ large, to which Socialists direct their ire and disdain.
When I was about 37, coming out of a stupid (on my part) and penurious marriage, I was faced with destitution. So, I decided to apply myself to learning about the stock market in order to make money on the side with my small earnings. Luckily, 1980 was a time of an easy job market, so when my paychecks resumed a month later, I started my ‘capitalist venture’, though I didn’t know it by that name then. It was just ‘work — at two jobs, save, learn to invest’. And at that time, Reagan arrived on the scene and cheered me on in the political sphere. Now, 40 years later almost to the day, I’m retired, safe and secure, though certainly not rich.
If nothing else comes of any good out of this horrid “Chinese Bat Fever” — as I label it! — I hope people of all ages will see the value of saving for an uncertain future. Stocks, bonds, real estate, familial trusts, gold coins, and a diamond ring or two or 10 for the ladies, equals ASSETS and PROPERTY — fixed or portable, etc. I see White civilization as the master and epitome of Property (though we have wily opponents worldwide), and which Socialists would see as the ‘bourgeois lifestyle’, against which they rage unrelentingly, but which is the basis of the wealth that supports progress — as I see it! Of course, I agree that it can get far out of hand, as our globalist corporations and cartels have amply illustrated.
So, my question is, where do we draw the line and how do we, National Populists, restructure our economy for ourselves to save our own kind? I know that this is not a short-answer essay question for you, but it’s something for all of us to begin considering. Humankind has been acquiring seashells and sparkling rocks, as well as building fences to secure them, since time immemorial, and that’s just a fact of life.
The way I see National Populism is that private enterprise is fine, but when it conflicts with the common good of the nation, it needs to be regulated. Most problems would be solved simply by protectionism, meaning tariffs on imported manufactured goods, so that businesses that want to sell in America need to manufacture in America. Also limits on immigration would cause wages to rise. There should be some commitment by the state to make sure that productivity gains are due to actual improvements in technology and organization, and that the gains are shared with workers. Today, productivity gains are primarily just cost-cutting measures, primarily the cost of labor. I would like to see a society of private property broadly distributed, with a large and prosperous middle class, in which a single bredwinner can own a home and support a family. We had that in America within your lifetime, and there’s no reason we can’t go back to that. That America was also freer than what we have today, for those who fret about using government policies to get there.
“Basic necessities such as hair, nails, and perfume shopping”
*hand in face emoji*
I’m sorry. I just…..lol
Official death projection is 60,000 and there is no evidence quarantine accomplished much of anything besides impoverishing millions of people. It’s just the flu, bro. I could speculate why so many on the Dissident Right wanted to believe the worst but who cares? Your credibility got absolutely wrecked. One of the biggest stories of our lifetimes and nearly everyone in our camp got it absolutely, 100% completely wrong. Only Andrew Anglin got it right. Sad!
You are completely wrong about this, and so is Anglin.
Greg Johnson writes: “Unless corona virus becomes extinct like smallpox, it will also be part of the new normal.”
Corona viruses are normal. They represent 15% of all common colds, right behind rhino viruses.
You and everyone with a drivers license has had corona viruses dozens if not hundred of times, they usually go unnamed, despite being killers annually of thousands of the old and frail and those with serious comorbidities – just like this one with a name!
Most people just get a mild fever and a cough though – just like this corona virus. Rarely do we seek out specific testing for the common cold or give them special names because it really doesn’t change the treatment and isn’t worth the cost.
But this was never the question at hand: the question at hand was whether the correct policy was the Panic-driven lock down – with the inevitable economic toll and all of the derivative tolls from that to include health tolls (suicide, delayed primary care, etc). THE ANSWER WAS ALWAYS NO, NEVER YES.
Our Enemies judged the answer to be yes. Much like they saw an opportunity to foment a second Hong Kong in Wuhan, they dreamed the Panic could also be used to undermine Trump. They will pay for their lack of vision.
Pursuant to our Enemies, the same people responsible for Charlottesville dug up the rotting corpse of their credibility and went “all in” on the Panic. As usual, they lost again, but sad to say many on the “dissident right” lacked the wisdom and foresight to keep a safe distance from them. Anything they touch will be poisoned and die quickly – don’t say you were never told.
Oddly, some saw the Panic-driven lock down as a way to join with the Enemy to curb stomp neighboring factions such as libertarians: the problem isn’t liberty, the problem is that we have non-whites living and voting in white lands. Liberty didn’t cause that. Jews did. Liberty is good. Liberty is the health of the white state.
Just like war is the health of state, plagues are the health of the Nanny State: “social distancing” (God what a horrid term!), house arrest, finger-wagging “experts”, firing of “non-essential” workers and the like. They even had the gall to tell people not to touch their own face!
No, these people are the Enemy, not the libertarians, not regular white folk who have been hurt and are going to be hurt even more by this Panic. Isn’t it time we became the Gang Who COULD Shoot Straight? Keeping our sights fixed firmly on the Enemy and not our friends?
I hope this reversal by you marks a lasting change not just a finger to the wind realization that the numbers will never justify the Panic and the bill is coming due.
This is the sort of Right-wing denialism that I completely reject.
I have not changed my mind on it at all.
[IBy now everybody should know the roles played by Gates Foundation, Dr Fauci, media and others in spreading panic, disinformation and outright lies.
The truth is that the coronavirus has mortality rate of 10% of that of a regular, seasonal flu ! The only people who died were those who were already seriously sick or elderly.
Now draw your own conclusions.] —
This denial of reality is big problem on the right that what we don’t need.
This is precisely the form of Right-wing denialism that I reject as false and harmful.
This is the best analysis i have read on this virus…..im a disabled veteran…..the VA I’m near, has cancelled my appts, til July….i have chronic conditions….we spend billions on immigrants…Veterans are just cannon fodder…..the positive side of this, my Ethnocentrism, has been reinforced….Thanks Dr Johnson, for this great article….
“This denial of reality is big problem on the right that what we don’t need.”
How is it denial of reality?
Anyone who wants to look at this from another angle should read this article. Very well researched and there is a very short summary after each of the main points.
Also this brief summary from “Take back your power” website.
“Here’s our working hypothesis. This premeditated agenda appears to include:
– vaccines which may be mandatory (or coerced via digital certificates, wristbands, or social credit score);
– a rapid, covert expansion of 5G;
– global biometric systems (such as this) to track who has been vaccinated or recovered from COVID-19;
– the continuing implosion of the economy to make the public dependent on the State;
– a digital currency linked to the biometrics and 5G;
– fear-based social control system to normalize “social distancing” and unjustified fear of other human beings. ”
I am not endorsing the mainstream republican position. There is a Chinese corona virus that is harmful. My main point is that they are exaggerating it in order push all these agendas.
The New Right approach should take this into account.
When there’s a global crisis, there are plenty of leftist and globalist megalomaniacs who will try to exploit it for their aims. Bill Gates and Henry Kissinger being two prominent examples. But that is no excuse for paranoid ideation from the conspiratard community, which just taints reasonable attempts to block bad policies.
Borders matter. Our survival matters. This bringing people into our homelands from all over the planet has got to go.
Ethnicities can survive plagues(Black Plague, Spanish Flu), nuclear bombs(Hiroshima, Nagasaki), however, ethnicities cannot survive demographic bombs(London, Leicester, Luton, Slough, Birmingham, Frankfurt, Detroit, etc.).
All ethnicities have the right in having their own homelands.
DEMOGRAPHY IS DESTINY.
Yes, all well said.
I agree that the virus is bad. My point is that it is certainly not as bad as what the media and many governments around the world are saying.
For example, the way they are counting the cases is very suspect.
There is also the 5G agenda that is also being pushed while everyone is indoors.
I see no credible evidence that the virus us not a serious threat.
And connecting it with 5G? That strikes me a simple lunacy.
Mr. Johnson is correct that this virus is a disaster for the anti-racist, open-borders Globalist crowd.
It seems to be a mixed bag for libertarians. On the one hand they can point out that the virus came from a repressive police state that hid the news from the world for a month while thousands of sick Chinese flew to Europe, Canada, the US, etc.
On the other hand this virus- and the ones before it like SARS- are springing from wet markets that should have been outlawed years ago.
There are some libertarians who actually believe neither the Chinese government- nor any other government – should have the right to regulate wet markets because it would be an attack on commerce and property rights.
Libertarians will of course attack communist China, but they had best remain silent and hope that nobody notices that their ideology creates highly favorable conditions for global pandemics and does not allow them to do anything to stop them.
The Corona virus seems to be much more “racist” than the flu and pneumonia. In both Northern Europe and America non-whites are heavily overrepresented among its victims. For example, in the UK eight doctors have died from this virus, all of whom were non-white immigrants.
Maybe it is the Northern European individualism that facilitates social distancing among many whites. Or maybe the difference can be found in our immune systems. Or both.
“We need more expensive and less frequent air travel, but we can cushion the impact on the airlines with tens of millions of deportation flights”
Good idea. If airlines want bailout money, they can deport all invaders in return.
There are two possible readings on these reports, or collected anecdotes, about COVID-19 being particularly virulent and fatal among nonwhites. My first assumption was that it really isn’t a race thing (or not by much), and is probably more a matter of geography. Urban areas, which are now heavily nonwhite, simply had more people passing through, bringing contagion, so it’s nonwhites who suffered more.
But the second explanation is certainly plausible for a number of reasons. There’s the matter of antibodies and acquired immunity. Over many centuries, Europeans obviously were exposed to a series of diseases that, say, Africans or American Indians were not. There are those classic stories of Indians being wiped out by smallpox, which Colonial Americans generally survived. (Before vaccination or cowpox inoculation, they would often use “variolation,” deliberately infecting themselves with smallpox scabs, be rather ill for a week, and then travel on with a lifetime of immunity.) And whether because of acquired immunity or perhaps some factor having to do with receptor sites in cells, it’s inevitable that susceptibility will vary among genetic groupings.
There’s also a third explanation, which we see often in the news and on social media. That’s the idea that black people in particular are not practicing “social distancing,” are having block parties when they’re supposed to be in lockdown, etc., etc. To me this is too speculative to be taken seriously, and while if true it might lead to more infections, it wouldn’t explain the higher death rate among the infected. And since most people haven’t been tested, and we can only guess how far the contagion has spread, the death rate is the number that matters.
So say the disease is most dangerous in those with comorbidities, ie high blood pressure, diabetes, which are much more prevalent in black and Hispanic populations. That’s why I think nonwhites are dying in higher proportions. But it’s so hard to get non hysterical information on the subject, everything is tentative at this point.
Greg, this Dr. Fauci is saying that people should completely abandon the social custom of shaking hands forever. Conspiracy theories aside, can you at least agree that that is a case of serious quackery on this guy’s part?
Someone on the Right really should do digging on this guy’s past. Lefty shitheads like Lily Singh and Trevor Noah seem to love him.
Fauci, Kissinger, etc. are megalomaniacs who don’t ever want this crisis to end.
These guys are not ‘denying’ reality: (and they’re not unique either)
Perspectives on the Pandemic | Professor Knut Wittkowski | Episode 2
Dr. Ioannidis on Why We Don’t Have Reliable Data Surrounding COVID-19
COVID-19 is a NOVEL form of the CORONAVIRUS, of which there are about five strains that aren’t “novel”. If you had four colds last year, one of them was probably caused by a CORONAVIRUS. There were five other”new” CORONAVIRUSES contending (with COVID 19) to make the big-time that year. This was unremarkable, even to the press. At last count, there were eight strains of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), MERS and SARS are still around. No one is surprised when they catch the, usually less virulent, same cold two weeks later. When do we declare that COVID-19 is no longer a “novel” CORONAVIRUS.
Plan A and Plan B are ultimately the same. You cannot PREVENT the spread of the virus(s) but you can slow it down. The economic breaks will be reapplied when the models predict that the local healthcare system might crash, or the economy will actually crash after the healthcare system actually crashes. On this point, Globalization ended flu season by not allowing flu infections to end. Ultimately Globalization will have to be ended to save the economy. Public pronouncements have been 90% emotional management with Republicans babbling “booming economy” and decrying “socialism” while Democrats babble “racism” and promise disparate access to the welfare state in favor of “brown bodies.”
On this point: when 70% of residents in Fictional City are White with a pre-existing conditions rate of 30%, while 30% of residents are Black with a pre-existing conditions rate of 60%, the addition of one exogenous factor (10%) produces an expected even split in fatalities. That exogenous factor could be any number or combination of things. Similarly, if the average age of COVID-19 fatalities is 80, while the average age at death is 79 for men and 85 for Women, then more males would be expected to die of COVID-19.
Have we shifted from “Just the flu” to “Just a cold” now?
Non hysterical information: Read this article and also follow Dr Anthony G Beck.
You said “connecting it with 5G? That strikes me a simple lunacy.”
I just want to clarify: I am not saying 5G causes the virus. In my opinion that theory is floating around the internet as a disinformation campaign to discredit REASONABLE criticism of wireless technology such as 5G and its negative affects on human health and the environment (save the bees anyone?).
I am simply stating that while people are indoors it has been confirmed that they are rolling out more cell towers including in schools.
This is relevant for the purpose of this website because for a healthy European civilization we need healthy children. The increase in wireless radiation is having a negative affect on childrens health.
The other important point I made was that they are going to role out mandatory vaccinations after this (up until now there have been ways to avoid this via exemptions).
Vaccinations (due to their toxic ingredients) are another part of the Big Pharmas attack on health around the world.
Greg I am sure you are too busy but if anyone else is interested you can read more about this on many websites such as Weston A Price Foundation, Childrens Health Defence, Americans for Safe Technology.
I just want to make sure smarter people in here are aware of these other factors at play.
There definitely is COVID19 and it does warrant concern.
One of the most staggering aspects of the whole covid-19 reaction is how profound and far-reaching the government with the help of the media can take the sheeple.
Just questioning whether the virus is anything out of a yearly mutant, and hence the validity of the whole reaction renders me downright a traitor with most of the people I meet.
Now where the h… did i leave my face mask….?
The overreach and incompetence of our government and its resident technocrats destroyed tens of millions of people’s livelihoods.
If anything, Libertarianism vindicated.
It is only vindicated because you insist on changing the subject. Libertarianism makes pandemics inevitable because it would rid the world of the barriers that contain them and the institutions that fight them.
In terms of lethality, the 2017-18 flu produced 808,129 hospitalizations and (of which) 61,099 deaths on a base of 44,802,629 infections. There was a 1.8% chance of being admitted to the hospital. If admitted to the hospital, there was a 7.5% chance of death. Rounding up, with an established annual vaccine program, there was a 14 percent chance of catching the flu, a 2% chance of needing to be admitted to hospital and then an 8% chance of death. Interestingly, there was a 46% chance of going to see the doctor, probably for sick pay verification (or for a mundane prescription) but only 6,4% of the population had some interface with the healthcare system while 7.5% of the population just bought soup and tissues and maybe some OTC medications. without incident. This is with 86% of the population not getting the flu– because we can vaccinate against the flu– as compared with 75% not being under orders to Shelter in place, which is not the same thing.
One in four Americans SHOULD BE sheltering in Place. The Chinese Ratio is 85:15:3; And they lie about casualties. That is, 85% of confirmed cases require no medical intervention (soup and tissues, etc.), 15% require medical intervention, and 3% die. Thus, if hospitalized there is a 20% chance of death. The CDC counts 492,416 cases (hospitalizations generally) generating 18,559 deaths SO FAR. This generates a 3.76% chance of dying if admitted to hospital, Let’s round that up to 4%. Yes, this is roughly half as deadly as the 2017-18 flu SO FAR. But this is with the economy running at 80%(?) to reduce the RATE of infection. Treating only 60% of cases (?) has dramatically improved effectiveness SO FAR. With shortages of everything and delayed (elective surgery, physicals, etc.) production and the reassignment of staff and rehiring of retired staff. Thus, an increase in cases results in an increase in fatalities. An increase of 315,713 cases (just the flu bro) would result in about as many casualties. At this point, even a return to the normal rate of traffic accidents would result in above average fatalities because the usual standard of care is impossible. And never mind the return of flu season, The flu no longer goes away, but it does oscillate with peaks and troughs; And we are looking for the TROUGH of COVID-19 (the peak is not apparent either) and whether it oscillates or dies. I think that COVID-19 will oscillate, thus ceasing to be “novel.” If COVID 19 were influenza, as opposed to CORONAVIRUS, then we would simply build another (3rd? as we haven’t built the second one yet) flu vaccine factory.
The Flu of 2017-18 (US) https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm#table1
COVID-19 2020 (US)https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
US population in 2017 (I googled) https://www.google.com/search?q=US+population+2017&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS766US766&oq=US+population+2017&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.21799j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
No SARS vaccine: https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/706717_1
No MERS vaccine: https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-(mers-cov) (sorry for referencing the WHO)
Sheltering in place (US): https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-03-21/as-more-states-clamp-down-1-in-4-americans-now-under-shelter-in-place-orders-due-to-coronavirus
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85448 (This actually argues for more than 3% fatality with 6% at least entering organ failure. producing 80:20:6) In other words, Italian percentages reflect a partial collapse of the healthcare systen.
The corona virus dominates the media. Social life has been torn out of its normal state in a way that has not been experienced for a long time. But we must and should ask ourselves: Why all this? Isn’t this virus, baptized “Covid-19”, ultimately also an instrument to shut down the already ailing financial system? https://off-guardian.org/
It’s the God given right of employers to take all the profit out of their companies and operate without reserves. It’s also their God given right to immediately unload their employees in case of vis major.
18 million US unemployed in 3 weeks! The economy is in a death spiral! Reopen NOW or everybody will commit suicide!
If you believe that the above two are related, and No. 2 is mainly a consequence of No. 1, and a modern society shouldn’t crumble under a 3 week stress test, you are a communist! You want bread lines and 100 million dead!
Meanwhile in Germany:
We’re all in this together, let’s save the jobs! All of them. Kurzarbeit and other measures worked in 2008, they will work again. Wir schaffen das!*
Meanwhile in V4:
We can’t afford to save every job and prop up industries that are unlikely to come back. But for every job lost we’ll create a new one. Here’s the average salary for 6 months if you are willing to learn a marketable skill.
Let’s check back in 3 years and see which strategy worked…
Big German Airline announces plans for a shopping spree. One of the targets is Hungarian low cost WizzAir (owned by an Orbán-friendly oligarch). But WizzAir is not for sale.
Profits at Big German Airline are down, company takes money out of V4 subsidiaries to pay bonuses at headquarters.
Big German Airline is reportedly losing EUR $1,000,000 per hour, is first in line to ask Mama Merkel for government assistance.
Also April 2020:
WizzAir announces it needs no government assistance, plans no lay-offs this year, can pay wages for 3 years(!) even if revenue is zero, plans to go on shopping spree for new hardware.
The truth is that the coronavirus has mortality rate of 10% of that of a regular, seasonal flu !
This is innumerate. The average flu season might produce 30,000 fatalities and doesn’t even show up among the top 10 causes of death. As of today, April 12, the China virus is currently the number one cause of daily death across the entire country. And this is considering that the number of deaths in places like New York are probably being dramatically undercounted.
Keep in mind that the China virus has become Death’s preferred scythe across the whole of America while still effectively sparing entire regions. How non-lethal does that sound?
Also, taking the average flu strain fatality rate to be .05 percent, such a rate would imply that more than 41 million Americans have already been infected with the virus given 20,500 deaths, 13 percent of the population. New York City alone has 6,367 recorded deaths — again, almost certainly a dramatic undercount — which accounts for 31 percent of all U.S. Covid-19 deaths. Given the average flu-strain mortality rate of .05 percent, higher than the “much less lethal than the average flu” rate that some might hypothetically assign, this implies that nearly 4 million New York City residents, about half the city’s population, have already been infected. Assuming recovery confers immunity, such a high prevalence of recovered people would be notably slowing the spread of the virus even in the absence of any preventive measures. That is not what we see even given draconian interventions.
The above numbers would also necessarily put a floor on the lower limit of its lethality compared with the average flu; it could, at a minimum, be 50 percent as deadly. Lower relative lethality or higher observed death counts would cause death-based estimates of total infected via mortality rates to exceed the actual population of New York City.
Finally, because Covid-19 is currently the number-one cause of death nationwide, with more than the 1,773 daily deaths attributable to heart disease, the 1,800 or so people that the virus is dispatching each day would equal .05 percent of the population by July 1st, and would reach the 70 percent where herd immunity is dramatically slowing the spread by the end of May, assuming constant daily death rates. And this is with the most extreme public health measures.
The implication here is that the virus would infect the entire country to the point of herd immunity in a matter of days if it were allowed to freely — exponentially — propagate. Does it seem realistic to expect that 70 or so percent of the U.S. population would be infected by a week from now? Because something like that is exactly what would have to happen given what we know if Covid 19 actually had a fatality rate of .05 percent.
Judge Holdem wrote:
And this is considering that the number of deaths in places like New York are probably being dramatically undercounted.
It is almost certain that corona deaths around the globe are being overcounted.
Everyone except me apparently knew who John Prine was, before he officially succumbed to corona. His death, at age 73, was reported as a corona casualty, even though he was a survivor of both lung and throat cancer and suffered from heart problems.
Did the corona virus rob him of an extra year or two of life? Perhaps. But it’s much more likely that he died with corona, not because of it.
Here’s a useful fact to orient our thinking: The average life expectancy in Switzerland is 82; the average age of corona death in Switzerland is also 82.
That suggests strongly that in Switzerland deaths of people *with* covid are being regularly confused with deaths *by* covid. The same pattern can be found elsewhere, as John Prine’s death suggests.
Anyone who has seriously followed this event knows that official corona death-counts often ignore concurrent illnesses.
The following is essential viewing:
Sucharit Bhakdi: Demystification of the nightmare!
Facebook is preventing, or so I’m told, this video from being circulated publicly on its platform.
If someone with a heart problem does into the hospital with corona and dies, it is legitimate to call it a death from coronavirus.
The idea that you don’t die of X if you have other things wrong with you would reduce AIDS deaths to zero, since nobody dies “from” AIDS, they die “with” AIDS.
A feather just knocked me over, almost literally… Greg Johnson has apparently succumbed to covid-hysteria, which is worse than the actual virus.
Their first reaction to the globalvirus was to deny it, because they did not want to interrupt the economy.
Their first reaction was correct. They didn’t believe the economy should be shut down over a flu. That there are still Swedes working and breathing suggests strongly that their initial skepticism was well-grounded. Sweden’s graveyards haven’t yet filled up.
Neil Ferguson initially projected a worst-case scenario of over two million American corona deaths; the first warning that Trump received was that corona could kill 500,000 Americans. He didn’t believe either number, and there can’t any doubt now that he was correct. In politics, however, being right is often a terrible mistake.
We are in the midst of a normal flu season, and it’s unlikely that fatalities in this flu season will be substantially higher than the normal fatalities in previous flu seasons.
SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data
I predict future outrage at designated experts, which is sad. We should be able to trust experts, but we cannot.
Saddam’s WMD offers a close analogy. Eventually people recognized that the intelligence experts they saw on television talking about Iraq’s massive stockpiles of deadly weapons had been wrong. A similar revelation about the 2020 flu season will come eventually, hopefully sooner rather than later. If subsequent respiratory illnesses provoke the same hysteria as this one has, we’ll all be living in ditches a few years from now.
coronavirus presents us with remarkable metapolitical and political opportunities.
I’m sure you’re right about this. At the very least, after the hysteria has ended, it will be easier to say “I don’t want more immigrants” than it was before.
Rightists who believe that corona hysteria is the result of some sinister conspiracy should keep that in mind. There’s no possibility that the West’s bad guys would consciously engineer a mass hysteria that politically benefits the West’s good guys. We’re living through an enormous mistake, not an evil plot.
Greg Johnson wrote:
nobody dies “from” AIDS, they die “with” AIDS.
I don’t think your analogy works well.
If I have corona in my body, I am unlikely to have serious symptoms. I may not even know that I have been infected. That’s normal with a seasonal flu.
If I then die of a heart attack or a brain tumor or a car accident, there is no reason to classify my death as a corona fatality. I didn’t have a disease caused by corona, so it should not be assumed that I died as a result of corona. Infection shouldn’t be confused with disease, as Dr. Bhakdi explains.
That rule belongs in “Basic Thinking about Infections 101,” though I didn’t know it until all this insanity started.
In infectiology – founded by Robert Koch himself – a traditional distinction is made between infection and disease. An illness requires a clinical manifestation. Therefore, only patients with symptoms such as fever or cough should be included in the statistics as new cases.
At the same time, the mistake is being made worldwide to report virus-related deaths as soon as it is established that the virus was present at the time of death – regardless of other factors. This violates a basic principle of infectiology: only when it is certain that an agent has played a significant role in the disease or death may a diagnosis be made.
If someone dies of a heart attack, tests positive for corona, and is put down as a corona death, that is disinformation.
Does it actually happen?
It is arbitrary to say that you die of disease X only if it is your only health problem.
What percentage of Americans have no serious health problems?
We have tens of millions of fat people.
We have millions of athsmatics.
We have millions of diabaetics.
We have tens of millions of frail old people.
IF coronavirus pushes them over the edge, it is a killer.
I disagree, Greg. This whole coronavirus thing is totally overblown and when the final numbers start coming out Andrew Anglin is going to be more right on this than anybody.
When the numbers are totaled they will be a consequence of corona plus all the attempts to limit its spread. We all hope those numbers are low. They wouod be much, much higher if people listened to the flu bros and did nothing. It would be utterly shameless for the flu bros to claim that lower numbers due to mitigation prove their case, but we aren’t dealing with rational or honorable people.
Looking at this strictly by the numbers, this Coronavirus is not much worse than the flu. And it’s not even as bad as the numbers indicate due to so many mild or asymptomatic cases that will never be included in the final tally. Almost all of those who have died from it are very old, had pre-existing health conditions, and/or were obese or otherwise unhealthy. Maybe it was the right thing to do to shut everything down for a while, but based on what we know now I think even that is debatable & businesses should be allowed to open back up without restrictions ASAP. Those who are at higher risk can use common sense and self-isolate along with other precautions.
Sweden isn’t doing horribly. When this is all done with and businesses are reopened, I’m confident that the number of lives ruined and number of deaths due to suicide, substance abuse, domestic violence, financial ruin, divorce, etc will far outnumber the deaths from this virus.
All of that being said, I think we as nationalists should point out the governments’ botching of handling this at every opportunity. As soon as Trump tried a halfhearted & ineffectual ban of some flights from China he was of course called a racist by all of the usual suspects. More extreme measures were of course warranted then, such as a total ban of Chinese nationals and quarantine of US nationals returning to the country. We should point out to our people not already on our side that in the event that there actually IS a virus with a high mortality rate, our current ruling class would prefer for millions of us to die than to do anything considered to be politically incorrect or racist.
“Nor was the shortage of protective face masks enough to stop the US from allowing millions to be bought up and exported by foreigners or simply given to Israel.”
Did you see the story about the Brooklyn Jew who was hoarding medical supplies, hoping to sell them at a mark-up?
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