1,311 words
See also, Senile Joe and the Loss of American Deterrence, A Jeremiad to the Empire of Nothing, The Deep State’s War on Russia, & Red Flags in Ukraine
What’s going on here is that the West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked. — John Mearsheimer at a talk given on September 25, 2015
The much-hyped Ukrainian spring offensive has failed. This was not unexpected. It always had as little a chance for success as the German army’s chance in the Battle of Kursk in 1943, and for the same basic reasons. It is unknown how many casualties the Ukrainians have taken since it began, but the number of dead and wounded is likely very large. What is certain is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine has not made any significant gains against the Russian army’s defense in depth posture.
While the Ukrainian government probably holds the lion’s share of the blame for the stalemate, the failure of this offensive is an enormous military disaster for the Biden regime. It is the second military debacle that the obviously senile President has presided over. There is also a border crisis that further calls Biden’s governing abilities into question.
I am uncertain why there was a strong push to attack in such a haphazard way in the first place. It could be due to domestic political pressure on the Ukrainian government to “do something.” It could also be the result of pressure from NATO and the United States to win a victory before the war, which is deeply unpopular in the US, becomes a hot potato in the upcoming 2024 election campaign.
The roots of failure
General George Pickett was in command of a division that was wiped out in an ill-advised frontal attack on a well-prepared Union position during the Battle of Gettysburg on July 3, 1863. This defeat cost the South the battle, and quite possibly the war. Years later, Pickett was asked why the charge had failed. He responded, “I’ve always thought the Yankees had something to do with it.” Pickett rightly pointed out that it was the Union army’s military skill which caused the attack to fail.
It is the same in Ukraine in 2023. The Russians were able to stop the Ukrainian offensive by maintaining air supremacy; building a massive, interconnected trenchworks in which Russian forces are secure from bombardment; and laying possibly millions of tank traps, mines, and barbwire fences before their fortifications — all of which are covered by both direct and indirect fire. Additionally, the Russians have successfully deployed their industry to manufacture drones which have destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicles while still on the approach march to their jump off points.
Another reason for the disaster is the Ukrainian government’s political decision to hold Bakhmut at all costs. The Ukrainian army lost irreplaceable manpower defending a city with little strategic value. The Ukrainians killed in Bakhmut are the phantom limb of the spring offensive. The manpower is not there, but its loss is being felt.
The Ukrainian army has also been unable to carry out combined arms operations in which artillery, electronic/cyber warfare, and aviation works together with the ground forces to achieve success. This could be due to a Ukrainian inability to apply the lessons they were taught by their NATO instructors, the slap-dashed and haphazard training itself, and/or the fact that NATO’s training and military doctrine is unsuitable for present conditions.
There are problems among Ukraine’s allies that are affecting the war as well. Massive rioting by migrants in France led to a number of Koran burnings in Sweden which alienated Turkey, a NATO member state, just as Sweden is attempting to join NATO, and increased social tensions with the Islamic world more generally. America’s long-running deindustrialization crisis is also a factor. American industry cannot keep up with the demand for armored vehicles and artillery shells which the Ukrainian army requires because it no longer possesses the infrastructure to rapidly produce large quantities of weapons and ammunition.
The lying press
You can buy Greg Johnson’s The Year America Died here.
The bitter fruits of the American mainstream media’s dishonesty and partisanship are further damaging the Ukrainian war effort. In the run-up to the war, the mainstream media spun an uncompromising narrative of Russian villainy which many Americans don’t accept. Their reporting reflects the bias of the American foreign policy establishment, and thus has signaled to the Russians that there was no possibility for negotiation, thus guaranteeing a war.
The mainstream media has not adjusted their editorial slant even as the reality of the dire situation in Ukraine becomes ever more apparent. Realists such as John Mearsheimer, who famously warned audiences in 2015 that “the West” — by which he really means anti-Russian Jews, sneering white liberal elitists, and Ukrainian hardliners — had embarked upon a strategy guaranteed to lead to a war in which the Russians have all the advantages, have either been silenced by the mainstream media or attacked for their views. Successful military theorists such as Colonel (Ret.) Douglas MacGregor, who accurately predicted the failure of the Ukrainian offensive months ago, was recently “scolded” when pointing out ongoing problems. His analysis was utterly disregarded in the national narrative.
What now?
Military analogies to the current situation abound. This failure could be a temporary setback for Ukraine akin to the Union army’s retreat after the disastrous Battle of Chancellorsville in the spring of 1863. It could also be the beginning of a downward trend for Ukraine, such as was the case for the Confederacy when the Union army turned back Pickett’s Charge at Gettysburg and captured Vicksburg. The Ukrainian army could also break, as the French army did in 1917. And naturally, something unforeseen could happen.
The Russians have undoubtedly secured a considerable advantage, however. They have more artillery, more troops, more ammunition, and have very likely taken fewer casualties than the Ukrainians. It is very likely that this war will end with Russia in control of the Russian-speaking areas of eastern Ukraine.
NATO will certainly take a hit when this happens. The resentment felt by ordinary Americans over the fact that the US has been providing for the defense of Europe and other places at their expense has been simmering under the surface since 1991. This resentment has only continued to grow despite being suppressed by the American political elite. Additionally, this conflict has caused NATO to begin showing some cracks, and they are continuing to grow. While America’s isolationists quietly make gains, Germany’s long-running national interest in having good relations with Russia is also returning to the fore. An adjustment within NATO will probably follow.
A small victory
There are signs that Ukraine’s Western backers are losing faith in a total Ukrainian victory. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg recently proposed NATO membership for Ukraine in return for territorial concessions, which would mean that Russia would keep the territory it gained by conquest while the rest of Ukraine would become part of NATO. France’s globalist former President Nicolas Sarkozy also encouraged Ukraine to accept Crimea’s accession to Russia. These statements might be signals that Western Europeans are willing to support negotiations. So far the Ukrainian government has rejected these trial balloons, but it is a step towards an end to the bloodshed.
While Ukraine’s performance in its spring offensive is a disappointment, Ukrainian valor is unquestionable. Ukrainian society has also held together. In 1917, when an independent Ukraine briefly came about during the Russian Revolution, the nation’s government — such as it was — was riven with factions. Militias of various political stripes, including anarchism, caused trouble. Ukrainian society imploded shortly thereafter to such a degree that the Soviet Union was able to take the region — and famine and terror followed.
Today, one thing is certain: Even if there is a peace treaty, it is certain that Ukraine will continue to exist as an independent nation-state whose people will be free to develop their culture in a positive way.
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31 comments
Very nice. We can’t cheer for either side, but can cheer for the Ukraine war playing out as a fiasco, leaving the pro-Uke “Westerners” with egg on their face.
However I believe the Germans would have won Kursk, wrapped up with a nice pink bow, if Hitler hadn’t called it off to send divisions west in order to defend…Italy? Sicily? As a knock-on effect, there was the coup against Mussolini before the Wehrmacht and SS reinforcements arrived.
I don’t believe the Germans would have won the Battle of Kursk if Hitler had not called it off. By July 17th, when Hitler cancelled all remaining attacks from the southern half of the battlefield (the southern pincer), the German forces from the northern half (the northern pincer) had been stopped cold after minimal gains for several days, & their jumping off positions & logistical bases in the Orel salient had been attacked in turn by a strong Soviet counter-offensive (Operation Kutuzov), which was forcing the Germans to retreat out of the salient to avoid destruction. It’s true that Manstein, the commander of the southern pincer, having just driven back the Soviet tank counter-attack at Prokhorovka, & who had finally chewed through most of the extremely deep Soviet defensive system, wanted to continue the German attack. But unknown to him, large Soviet 2nd & 3rd echelon reserve forces – all uncommitted & fresh, including at least one entire tank army – were moving towards his positions to seal off any breakthrough the Germans might have achieved. The Russians also had even more uncommitted, strategic reserves. In contrast, the Germans had no reserves left: tactical, operational, or strategic – all their forces were committed. Manstein – the most capable German operational commander – just may have been able to win some temporary tactical victories, but they would almost certainly have been overwhelmed by onrushing Soviet reserves.
Well that’s very granular, and you may be right, and perhaps Hitler belatedly knew what he was doing. I’d have to dig deeper.
Yeah, I’ve been fascinated by Kursk for decades – kinda OCD. Like you, I thought for years that Hitler should not have cancelled Citadel, but I’ve gradually changed my mind. By summer 1943, the “correlation of forces” (to use a Soviet era term) had become too overwhelmingly in the Red Army’s favor for the Germans to risk a major outright offensive with the limited forces at their disposal. Especially against the massively fortified positions the Soviets had developed at Kursk after the Germans had repeatedly delayed their attack to strengthen their own forces. I think you’re aware that many German generals thought similarly before the battle (especially Guderian), & strongly recommended the Wehrmacht wait for the Soviets to make the first move (the “back-hand” option, which was Manstein’s preference, vs the “fore-hand” option the Germans finally went with), & then let Manstein smash the Red army offensive with a well-timed counter-stroke, as he had in the Third Battle of Kharkov after the Stalingrad debacle.
“In contrast, the Germans had no reserves left: tactical, operational, or strategic – all their forces were committed.”
A kid that lived a block over from me as a child (USA) lived with his parents and grandfather. The parents and g-father were from Germany originally, and now were US citizens.
The g-father had a badly healed would on the back of his head, which was fully visible because he was bald, and I remember asking his grandson what had happened to him. He brought me to his granddad and told him what I had asked, and that my own grandfather had been killed in combat against the Germans during WW2. The old man hugged me and told me that it was a stupid war arranged by crooks, and he told us the story of his final battle, which was Kursk.
He was in an armored vehicle that broke through the initial Soviet line, and a subsequent line, and this fighting vehicle had a radio, which was not commonly the case during this era. He said the radio lit up with German tank commanders assuming that after the second line, they had only to cauldron the remaining defenders, and the battle had been won.
The Soviets had reverse engineered Pakfront defense, and this was far from the only line awaiting the German advance. This old man’s tank was disabled soon after, along with several other tanks or Hetzers, and they were abandoned to advancing Soviet infantry. He said that they holed up in the tank, and one of the men could see gas being poured into another German armored vehicle to get its crew to exit. The ones who exited were shot.
Eventually, someone convinced his crew to exit and surrender, and he was shot in the back of the head, which caused the visible damage. He played dead and staggered back to a German unit after dark, and was probably one of the fortunate few that got evacuated back to Germany at that stage of war..
Very interesting – and terrible. Your grandfather was killed, my father was wounded (not badly) – mortar shrapnel – in Tunisia. He retained a life-long respect for the German Army & freely admitted, “They were better than us,” when it came to fighting.
“In the run-up to the war, the mainstream media spun an uncompromising narrative of Russian villainy which many Americans don’t accept.”
“Many” Americans, ‘eh?
“Attitudes toward Russia remain very negative. Majorities of Americans have very unfavorable opinions of Russia (62%), say Russia is an enemy (64%) and have no confidence at all in Putin (71%)”
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/05/10/americans-hold-positive-feelings-toward-nato-and-ukraine-see-russia-as-an-enemy/
The Ukrainians are attempting the extremely difficult, which is to retake territory without air supremacy. Russia has traded an entire generation of it’s armed forces for some bombed out real estate. Ukraine will only lose if Europe and America falls under the sway of foolish isolationists who think that genocide of Ukrainians is fine so long as the military budget isn’t affected.
The Russians may have lost up to 60k total soldiers. American intelligence agencies, as revealed by documents released by a Mass national guardsman, estimate the Russians have a 5:1 advantage in casualties. That would put Ukrainian losses at 300k. EU officials have it even worse, saying it’s a 7:1 Russian advantage. Of the Russian casualties, about half were Wagner forces, many convicts used as cannon fodder in Bakhmut. Hardly a generation.
Sad that nationalists applaud Russia’s criminal slaughter of whites because they imagine it makes Jews like Zelensky and Nuland sad.
You’re posting Dissident Right fan-fiction and straight up lies.
The document you’re referring to, leaked by Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeira, estimates up to 43,000 killed – out of upper-bound estimate of 223,000 casualties. Given that the Russian standing army size as of 2020, the last released figures, was 400,000, back of the envelope math dictates that the Ukrainian war has already cost the Russians more than half their total ground forces.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/
The same document estimates Ukies have suffered 130,000 casualties, with 16K K.I.A. So three dead Russians for every one dead Ukrainian, as of February, due to home turf advantage, superior training, equipment, discipline and organisation. Not exactly the “7:1” Russian Superman fantasy.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-casualties-soldiers-killed-ukraine-counteroffensive-putin-war-rcna82380
Russian shills quickly photoshopped photos of said document to reflect their own fantasy football figures, and online Rightists, who are not exactly photoshop savvy or regularly employed in creative industries, to put it lightly, were gullible enough to believe them.
The same goes for the statements put out by MacGregor, who Morris d’ Camp glowingly quotes, has been saying that the Ukies have been losing since Day 1, while the Russian army gloriously advances backwards. He said “If they don’t surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them” in the first week, and subsequently said “I would say another 10 days this should be completely over.”
The position of the political centre and those in power is that a cordon sanitaire should be created and enforced to shut out DR’s out of major platforms and any political conversations because of “disinformation” and radicalisation. So when commentators here post disinformation, it just supports that. But by all means carry on believing that after more than a year of being in full-scale retreat, the Russians are actually unstoppable Doom Marines.
I think Ukraine should try to wage an ASYMMETRIC warfare, it means the war of a weaker against a stronger, without any considering of “laws and customs of war”, i.e. to fight like Palestinians or Vietcong. If Ukrainians do not have missiles to get Russian air bases, they should use vans with explosives made of mineral fertilizers and fillings of nails and nuts, suicide men-bombers in the subway, test tubes with germs of plague, typhus and cholera, political assassinations, strikes on the so-called civilian targets. This is normal for any war of national liberation (and that war is just this, the war of national liberation,and not a war for some stupid Jewish-Western BS like democracy, freedom, human rights, tolerance or transgenderism, or war to defend “Europe” (which is totally pro-Russian)). Unfortunately, Ukrainians are not cruel enough, or even brave enough to make Beiruts out of provincial Russian cities, or even made a new September 11 in Moscow. And the Western left-liberals will not allow them to use such methods either.
And the Western left-liberals will not allow them to use such methods either.
Cluster bombs ring a bell?
No, this is just a battlefield weapon. Asymmetric war is something different. Bombing of the USMC barracks in Beirut in October, 1983, is an asymmetric war.
I used to be a Top 100 commenter at this website. Nowadays I read an interesting article, have thoughts that I want to share, scroll down to the comment section, see this Turk is hijacking the discussion again, so I just close the browser window with Ctrl + W.
You still are. If you don’t like other commenters, just ignore them.
Bioweapons are very difficult to control. They should never be used – especially on one’s own territory.
Suicide warfare is simply not the white man’s way, unless it is “suicide in the last ditch” (heroic fighting to the last man – Thermopylae, Horatio at the bridge – to buy time for others of one’s people to regroup or retreat). I confess I don’t know exactly what Christian “just war” theory says about suicide warfare of the kind you’re advocating, but I suspect it strongly opposes it (especially when it involves the deliberate targeting of civilians – which would be particularly egregious in this war, as so many ordinary Russians didn’t want it). And without a belief in an afterlife, what secular Ukrainian would just go and kill himself for the Fatherland? Risking one’s life is already an impressive stretch for unbelievers.
Nearly all white men fall into one of these two categories: Christians or atheists. Perhaps an Odinistic equivalent to a typical Muslim suicide-bomber could be found, one who thinks that by dying suicidally-heroically, he will have garnered a straight ticket to Valhalla! But I doubt there are very many such men.
The NATO Secretary-General’s proposal makes the most sense.
Maybe NATO’s Secretary General would give over to Russians some of territories of a NATO country?
If you wanna get all conspiratorial about it, Ukraine is a country full of white Europeans waving around symbols associated with white survival and counter-semitism, and are being presided over by Jewish oligarchs. If you ever wanted to put your own population in a meat grinder, especially the young men of fighting age who might be espousing the wrong ideas, this would be how you’d do it.
Sigh. Russia started the war, not Ukraine.
Never let a good crisis go to waste, as they say. Not every measured, big-picture observation about this conflict amounts to Putin apologism.
But by all accounts (Turkey, Belarus, Israel) it was the Ukrainian elite which decided not to stop with a compromise in March-April 2022.
Based on US & UK promises of unlimited support.
And maybe veiled — or not so veiled — threats to Zelenskyy, who was elected on a peace platform, to go on with the war or be “removed”, whatever that means in Ukrainian politics.
If the Ukrainians would prefer to live free of Russian influence they should extend the same courtesy to the Russians living in Ukraine.
Russians living in Ukraine can leave if they feel oppressed.
The eastern provinces are historically Russian territory. The Ukrainians could have let the Russians living there be. But they didn’t. Instead they harassed them legally and militarily while building up their military. I’m sure that there is enough space in Ukraine for all their ethnic groups to have their own space. If the will is there.
I see both sides as desiring to rule over other peoples and therefore imperialistic.
That’s a false narrative from start to finish.
That is not an ethnic conflict and even not a conflict for a language. That is a territorial and ideological conflict.
The Russians believe they are in Russia. They are willing to pay in blood.
You believe it’s a false narrative. What are you willing to pay?
I’ll gladly pay to strangle Russia with sanctions and flood Ukraine with armaments. The Ukrainians are willing to bleed to make the Russians pay for their imperialist pretenses.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but Americans don’t pay — the US profits massively from the sanctions against Russia.
Ukrainians aren’t willing to fight, they are conscripted. Those who refuse to fight are shot or sent to penalty units and forced to walk on minefields. (On the Russian side too.)
P.s.: Americans are incomprehensible.
Ukraine is a de facto empire. Unfortunately it was constructed from parts of old deceased empires. Such states are inherently unstable.
I live next door to Western and Southern Slavs but I can’t tell their languages apart, unless I see them in writing. But language and ethnicity are very thin threads to tie people together.
Czechia was part of Austria. Slovakia was part of the Kingdom of Hungary. Goodbye Czechoslovakia.
Slovenia was part of Austria. Croatia was part of the Kingdom of Hungary. Serbia was part of the Ottoman Empire. Goodbye Yugoslavia.
But the situation is even more complicated. For example, the most Ukrainian region today is Western Ukraine, regional capital Lviv. But it’s a former Austro-Hungarian city, built laregely by Poles and Jews. By the end of WW2 the Poles were massacred and deported. The Jews were exterminated. 85% of the pre-war population was gone. And the city was re-populated by two-thirds Ukrainian peasants from the surrounding area, and one-third Russians, who were basically the intelligentsia. When the Russians say everything of value in modern Ukraine was built by them, there’s an element of truth in that. (White Russians: IQ > 100. Ukrainians: IQ = 92.)
There are many examples like this all over Eastern Europe.
Disclosure of interest: half my family were post-Trianon refugees. They were ethnically cleansed, as if they were dirt. But their property wasn’t dirty, of course. They were deported in cattle cars on Monday, Tuesday night someone else slept in their beds.
No, I don’t want to change borders. I just want white people to leave each other alone. We could have decent international standards for language rights, education, political representation. And then just move on into space. The Universe is big enough for all of us.
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