Non-Interventionism in Light of the Twelve Day War

2,289 words

In January 2024, the Homeland Institute ran a poll on non-interventionism and related topics in response to the Gaza crisis. To track how public opinion is evolving and in response to the 12 Day Iran-Israel War in mid-June, 2025, we ran another poll on non-interventionism.

We polled 847 respondents who are politically and demographically representative of white, non-Hispanic American registered voters from June 27 to July 8, 2025, and our margin of error was plus or minus 3%.

US-Israeli Relations

Let us begin with our questions on the US’s relationship with Israel.

While Republicans were much more likely than Independents and Democrats to view the US’s relationship as a net positive, including among young Republicans, significantly fewer Republicans age 18-29 see it as a net positive.

And the 20.3% of all respondents age 18-29 who see the US relationship as a net positive were decisively outnumbered by over two to one by the 42.7% who see it as a net negative. (While the age cohorts were not as tightly controlled for demographic characteristics as for party affiliation the results are still strongly suggestive).

For comparison, the number of all respondents who see the US relationship with Israel as a net positive was within the margin of error compared to the January, 2024 Homeland Institute poll. However, there was a small increase in those who answered “about equally positive and negative” and “a major net negative.”

Among respondents age 18-29, there was a decline from the 15.3% and 19.1% who said that the US-Israeli relationship was respectively a major net positive and a minor net positive in January 2024 to 10.9% and 9.4% in this poll. And the number of respondents age 18-29 who answered a “major net negative” spiked from 9.3% to 24.6% over a mere year and a half.

Next, in comparison to our January 2024 poll, there was a very slight increase in respondents claiming that they could think of a concrete example of Israel aiding American interests off the top of their heads, and a moderate increase by about 10% from 29.3% to 41.9% claiming they could think of a concrete example of Israel hurting American interests:

Bomb the Third World, Import the Third World

Since the Global War on Terror, there has been a general trend of Western countries both intervening in and accepting migrants from undeveloped countries. This trend of “bomb the third world, import the third world” naturally heightens the risk of terror attacks. Thus, we asked respondents several questions about this trend:

The results for the first two questions about terrorist attacks in the US homeland were within the margin of error compared to our January 2024 poll. The results for the third question on accepting refugees from Gaza was also relatively unchanged, although there was a slight decrease in respondents who “somewhat support” accepting such refugees and a slight increase among those who “don’t know.”

The 50.1% of respondents in this poll who oppose accepting Palestinian refugees from Gaza decisively outnumber the 31% who would support accepting Gaza refugees. Support for accepting Gaza refugees was strongly driven by Democrats while Independents, and especially Republicans, were staunchly opposed.

Intervention on Behalf of Israel

In both this poll and the January 2024 poll, we asked respondents several questions about intervening in current Middle East conflicts.

The 38.8% of respondents who support providing economic, material, and diplomatic aid to Israel in its ongoing conflicts dropped by 12.9% from 51.7% in the previous poll to 38.8% in this poll. 44.7% of respondents now oppose providing such support.

Even more striking was how among respondents age 18-29, support for providing such aid plummeted by over a half from 37.7% to 18.1%. Even among Republicans age 18-29, support dropped from 52.1% to 37.8% with more young Republicans now opposing such aid than supporting it.

Our previous poll asked respondents their opinion on direct military intervention in Israel’s conflicts with boots on the ground or air strikes. Since direct intervention has already happened with a single US strategic strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22, 2025, we decided to ask about boots on the ground and air strikes separately:

Overall, respondents who favor direct intervention with airstrikes at 37% are outnumbered by those who oppose airstrikes at 52.4%. And while more Republicans support airstrikes than oppose them, including Republicans age 18-29, support for airstrikes is still lower among young Republicans compared to all Republicans.

In contrast to airstrikes, support for troops on the ground is almost non-existent at 12.4%. 60% of all respondents strongly oppose direct intervention with troops on the ground.

We also asked respondents what they thought was the ultimate outcome of the Iran-Israel conflict for the US, along with what they think the outcome of a future US intervention would be:

The Draft

As in our January 2024 poll, we asked respondents how they would respond to a draft:

Of interest is that the number of respondents age 18-29 who said they would oppose a draft by making themselves ineligible or are already ineligible rose from 38.8% in January, 2024 to 50.7% in this poll. 43.5% of respondents age 18-29 said they would oppose a draft through peaceful protest and 22.5% through non-violent civil disobedience, up from 25.7% and 16.9% respectively in the previous poll.

There was also a moderate increase in respondents of all ages saying they would oppose a draft through political action, peaceful protest, or non-violent civil disobedience from the previous poll.

As in the January 2024 poll, we also asked respondents if they thought instituting a draft would be feasible. The results were within the margin of error for all respondents, with a mild dip among respondents age 18-29 who answered “absolutely yes” and “probably yes.”

Intervention in General

Finally, we repeated our questions about whether foreign intervention is a net positive or negative in regards to the interests of both the American people and foreign peoples:

The results were generally within the margin of error compared to the January 2024 poll. As of now, the 17.3% of respondents who see foreign intervention as a net positive for the American people are decisively outnumbered by the 55.6% who see it as a net negative. Among respondents age 18-29, those numbers are 11.6% and 65.2% respectively.

The number of respondents who see foreign intervention as a net positive for foreign peoples are outnumbered for those who see it as a net negative for foreign peoples.

Conclusion

• Support for foreign intervention on behalf of Israel is declining, especially among young voters.
• Although support for Israel is higher among Republicans, age is becoming as important as party affiliation in regards to Zionism.
• Support for direct military intervention in Israel’s ongoing conflicts with air strikes is low, and even lower for with troops on the ground.
• There would likely be widespread resistance to a draft.
• Only a slim minority sees foreign intervention as generally being a net positive for the American people.
• More respondents see foreign intervention as generally being a net negative rather than a net positive for foreign peoples.

Key Statistics

The number of respondents age 18-29 who answered that the US’s relationship with Israel is a “major net negative” spiked from 9.3% to 24.6% over a mere year and a half.

Support for providing economic, material, and diplomatic aid to Israel in its ongoing conflicts plummeted by over a half from 37.7% to 18.1% among respondents age 18-29. Even more young Republicans now oppose such aid than support it.

Those who support direct intervention on behalf of Israel with airstrikes are outnumbered by those who oppose airstrikes. Support for intervention with troops on the ground is almost non-existent.

43.5% of respondents age 18-29 said they would oppose a draft through peaceful protest and 22.5% through non-violent civil disobedience, up from 25.7% and 16.9% in January, 2024.

The 17.3% of respondents who generally see foreign intervention as a net positive for the American people are decisively outnumbered by the 55.6% who see it as a net negative.