Is the Party Over?

2,979 words

If a week is a long time in politics, as British Prime Minister Harold Wilson is supposed to have quipped to lobby journalists in 1964, then a month is an eternity. In mid-February, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party was riding high, topping electoral polls and threatening both main wings of the British uniparty, Labour and Conservative. Reform’s galloping progress was unheard of for such a tenderfoot party, and a genuine political revolution seemed underway, as though Britain were catching up with the European shift to the Right. A month on, and things don’t look quite so rosy.

The phrase “honeymoon period” is often used to describe the early life of a new government and, as with many marriages,

when the honeymoon period is over, that’s when problems start. Reform UK may become the only party in British political history whose governmental honeymoon period ended four years before their first real shot at power.

As with many failed marriages, there is a home-breaker in the shape of (now former) Reform Member of Parliament (MP), Rupert Lowe. Like his boss Farage, Lowe comes from the world of finance, and so did not rise through the accepted rites of passage common to Britain’s political class. But his recent public disagreement with Farage has escalated, threatening the stability of a party barely out of the starting-blocks.

Five MPs in the 650-seat House of Commons may not seem a political earthquake, but Reform’s share of the national vote shows their popularity, and this is a strong base for a party less than a year old. They won their five seats with 14% of the national ballot, whereas the Liberal Democrats took just 11%, yet gained 71 seats. This is the nature of the first-past-the-post British electoral system as opposed to its alternative as proportional representation. But Farage is no stranger to causing electoral upsets and, of course, has long ridden the wave of the Brexit vote in 2016.

Farage is certainly not dull as a politician, and must be the only MP to have served as an MEP (Member of the European Parliament), hosted a political news show on TV, survived a light-plane crash, and brought down a government. UKIP, Farage’s earlier incarnation, was the first party other than the main two to win a seat in the European Parliament for over a century. For a while, Farage had the Midas touch, but now his crown is slipping.

This very public argument began over immigration, and Lowe’s rather more radical stance towards deportation. Lowe’s difference of opinion soon became criticism of Farage’s leadership, referring to the Reform boss as a “messiah”, in behavior if not in reality. Elon Musk also used his own platform X to criticize Farage, suggesting Lowe might make a good replacement, something he must have known would provoke the Reform leader.

Now, rumors have already started that Musk wishes to fund a completely new political party with Lowe at the helm. A few weeks ago, the same rumor-mill was grinding out that Musk wished to fund Reform itself to the tune of $100 million. A few weeks are proving to be a very long time in politics, although if Musk were to provide the money for a start-up political party in the UK – even via his onshore companies – it is difficult to see how that would not constitute election interference. I wonder if there is not too much of the prankster in Musk.

If he did such a thing, this spat between Lowe and Farage may take on significant proportions for the British political landscape. Any new right-of-center party would obviously split Reform’s vote, and the question would be by how much.

As for Lowe’s own position, he has stated publicly that the “mass rape of mostly white British schoolgirls by mainly Pakistani men… is a rotting stain on our country’s history”, and he calls for the immediate deportation both of foreign rapists and those who collude with them. Farage has been gradually softening his stance on deportation for some time, and this was an icy blast of wind for the leadership. Lowe was described by some as an “ethno-nationalist”, and this is a pigeon-hole Farage has been careful to avoid. He is avoiding a lot of hot topics at present.

Farage recently explained that, as the Muslim population of the UK was growing by around 75% per decade, to alienate this community would be political suicide. To some, this may look like political expediency, but viewed from another angle, it looks an awful lot like appeasement. Farage was also asked if he had a problem with the native British population slipping into the minority. His reply was admirably succinct, if not what a lot of his base would have wanted to hear; “No”. That one-word answer travelled swiftly around the right-wing grapevine.

One gets the feeling that older politicians still don’t grasp the amplifying effects of social media, and how much this has changed the nature of politics in a relatively short space of time. Whereas once (although it undoubtedly still goes on) ministers would brief against one another behind the scenes, smears and whispers made privately in the right ears, now they take to the keyboard. And, of course, on social media the fight is not confined to the two combatants. Like a brawl in a Western saloon, everyone piles in. It was an unedifying atmosphere pre-internet, however, and at least social media is transparent in that respect. A barbed comment passing between MPs in a bar is deniable; a screen-shot tweet is not. But so many newspaper articles now revolve around high-profile clashes in this new public square that one wonders if the modern MSM journalist leaves the office at all, except for lunch.

Citizen journalists also trawl social media, but they come to somewhat different conclusions, and Farage is in bad odor with the online right. British political YouTubers are something of a small guild now, and although they are not a representative sample of the British political mood, they are a good litmus for what is to come, and they are not reacting well to Farage’s cloak-and-dagger approach to political infighting. He supposedly has a track record of building up right-wing colleagues only to knock them down once they become too popular within the party apparatus.

Farage’s adherence to political principle is also questionable. Before the General Election last July, Farage said he would not be standing for Parliament, but would instead be going to the US to campaign for Donald Trump. Then, a poll came out showing that 37% of voters in Clacton were intending to vote Reform, enough to win the seat. Farage announced his intention to run the next day. Political opportunism is not always self-serving, but much depends on whether Nigel Farage’s priorities lie with the country he has been so vocal in promoting and defending, or Nigel Farage. No one really likes an egotist except the egotist himself.

A candidate named Tony Mack was due to stand against Farage in Clacton, but Farage made him an offer if he stood down. He would pay Mack’s campaign expenses, and give him a paid position if he won the seat. Farage duly did so, but neither promise was kept.

MP Andrew Bridgen, himself sacked from the Tory Party apparently for being too much of a Tory, spoke to Farage to attempt to get him to discuss the vaccination of children under five, something Bridgen was campaigning against. “I’m not going to talk about the vaccine”, Farage told him. “And if you know what’s good for you, Andrew, neither will you”. Bridgen also advised Reform members Ben Habib and Rupert Lowe. “It won’t be long until Nigel comes for you”, he told them. Which he did.

In-fighting aside, Farage has also faced fierce opposition from the deep state, something apparent with right-wing politicians across Europe. The French have gone through tortuous coalitions to keep Marine Le Pen from power – as well as current attempts at bringing her down via lawfare. Germany has tried to ban the increasingly popular Alternativ für Deutschland, and when a right-wing party won the first round of the Romanian general election, the result was simply cancelled and the party leader arrested. The same thing could yet happen to Reform (probably without the arrest) if they are crowded out by a coalition with possible kingmakers, the Liberal Democrats. And so Farage knows all about the sinister powers that lurk in the political shadows. But rumors swirl that he himself is far from averse to the dark arts.

As soon as the row with Lowe blew up, for example, Reform called the police over alleged bullying in Lowe’s office. That looks like a low blow, although the case is as yet unresolved. But Farage, politically speaking, is a street-fighter, and supposedly a dirty one. He immediately told party workers they would be fired if they spoke to the media about the Lowe affair, a sign of lack of trust in his staff and, therefore, a lack of trust in his own message. As I write this, a second MP is being investigated by police. This is beginning to look like a night of the long knives.

I have followed Farage’s career since long before Brexit, reading two biographies and an autobiography, and until very recently I still believed he was the only serious alternative to the string of failed Conservative Prime Ministers Britain has suffered in the last couple of decades. Farage has always based his political moves on a simple formula; Given that Britain is essentially a conservative nation, and also that there is no real Conservative Party currently in existence, just act like an old-school Tory and you’ll clean up. Throw in the matey optics, a pint and a cigarette in hand and the pub as your natural environment, and you’ll cover a lot of bases. The hysterical response over Farage and Brexit from sources such as HOPE Not Hate served only to convince people that Farage represented conservative interests. By their enemies shall ye know them. But can he stay the course?

The UK’s major betting syndicates all favor Reform to form the next government, which may sound frivolous, but gambling companies have a far better track record than pollsters when it comes to elections. But don’t bet on Farage sticking with his promises, except his own to himself: hold on to your crown. When power begins to become a very real possibility, then politically speaking, it’s no more Mr. Nice Guy. But observers are entitled to ask – and are asking – how a party with just five MPs can have a civil war. Starmer will be delighted with the ruckus, as will the Tories.

There is a belief that Reform is Farage and Farage is Reform, and so one would expect the rank-and-file members to line up behind their leader. But to experience a meteoric rise and then to consolidate that boost is proving too much for the party at present. You don’t ride into town to clean it up and then get involved in a Mexican stand-off with one of your own guys. In fact, Farage has already pulled the trigger, suspending Lowe from the party with no apparent way back, mainly for talking about the grooming gangs. Way to cut your seats in Parliament by 20%. But the battle between Farage and Lowe shows something else about modern politics in the West.

Politicians are acutely aware that they cannot necessarily tell the public what they want to hear if the professional political media don’t agree with it. Contentious political statements have to be tested out on the commentariat first for fear of repercussions. Of course, Farage has been called a racist time without number, but so has everyone else. That’s the climate now. Farage has also stressed the civic nationalist side of all of his parties in an attempt to deflect this catch-all criticism, meaning push the black and brown people up front. But when the House voted down a Bill enabling a national enquiry into the grooming gangs, he and his aide de camp (and ex-Reform leader) Richard Tice loudly proclaimed that they would fund a private enquiry. It never happened. Reform are breaking manifesto pledges before they even have a manifesto, and Farage’s political moves are becoming more constrained as the General Election of 2029 edges ever closer. He is also being forced to make choices which risk alienating swathes of his base. A chess game that started so well for him has tightened.

The first gambit which didn’t pay off for Farage was the case of Tommy Robinson. It is immaterial what anyone thinks about Robinson, the fact is that by dismissing him and his supporters, Reform sawed off a whole branch of the electorate they may be sitting on the wrong side of. Ezra Levant, founder of Canadian media outfit Rebel News, was in Clacton when Farage triumphed and became an MP on July 4. He said he talked to any number of grassroots Reform members and they all wanted to talk about Robinson (Levant is a friend of his and Rebel News has helped fund Robinson’s legal team). As soon as Farage turned up on the night of the election, none of the members said another word to Levant about the imprisoned activist.

Then there is the question of the new – and Muslim – Chair of the Reform Party. The original Brexit Party became Reform UK by the purchase of a company called Reform 2025. This had as directors half-a dozen Reform members, including Richard Tice. No longer. Now, there is just Farage and Sri Lankan money-man Zia Yusuf (an enemy of Lowe’s), the new Chair noted. He is not as popular as immigrants wish to be.

Immigration, of course, is center-stage in British politics, although the deep state is trying to keep it out of the limelight, and British politics is consequently in its most volatile period since the government of Margaret Thatcher. Those expecting Labour simply to be incompetent had not bargained for the authoritarianism of Sir Keir Starmer. If Farage comes across at this stage as too much of a bully, and potentially too dictatorial in the style in which he might run the country, the base might be scared off. Also, where are Reform’s policies? I haven’t heard anyone from the party cost anything out, or even propose much to cost out in the first place. When you take away the immigration rhetoric – which Reform have gradually been chipping away at – the cupboard is bare.

Where does this leave a British public who have both buyer’s remorse now that Starmer has shown his colors, and understand dimly that the return of conservatism is essential? It leaves them with Farage. Lowe is out and they will not take him back. In a recent poll of Reform voters, 71% of respondents didn’t know who Lowe was. He just lacks profile, particularly of the sort Farage has assembled, the party leader and “Mr. Brexit” being a household name even in the most politically uninterested households. But will the public begin to sense that Farage is not the Great White Hope? Politicians constantly drag out the same old line: “The British/American/Whatever people are not stupid”. They then proceed to treat those people as though they were all wearing baseball caps back-to-front. Farage must beware of this. The British voter can smell a rat.

Lowe himself would be a far better bet for the native British, and does not seem to be an orthodox part of the political class (something Farage may be becoming). Lowe uses the phrase “anti-white racism” openly, something Farage would not dream of doing. Independently wealthy, Lowe donates his entire parliamentary salary to charity. In the midst of the ongoing row, although he would have had no problem getting onscreen media time in the MSM, Lowe chose to go on an unknown podcast with just over 500 subscribers and answer questions. Lowe also made overtures to Farage to heal the rift in the lute, and answer came there none. His letter to Farage did not pussyfoot around, and was addressed simply; “Nigel”.

Lowe also said something recently which you do not hear from British politicians. He was discussing devolution of central government, which he thinks has been a disaster for the UK. “That’s not our policy”, he told the interviewer, “but it’s my view”. You never hear a politician say that. You take the party line or you will be getting a text message to see the Chief Whip (the enforcer of parliamentary party discipline within Westminster). This is how normal people might speak, and Lowe may have a genuine common touch while Farage’s is looking increasingly counterfeit.

The MSM are, course, getting behind Lowe because they despise Farage, for the Brexit vote if nothing else. There is a virulent strain of Farage Derangement Syndrome among metropolitan British journalists, and if the legacy media can use Lowe as leverage against Farage, they surely will. But, in all likelihood, this is just a dent in Farage’s armor, despite two entire local chapters of Reform resigning in protest. This just means that principled people are leaving the party, which will make space for new arrivals (including defecting Tories) who are prepared to play – and speak – within the confines set by Farage. Vetting procedures (the insufficiency of which has already bitten Farage) will be tightened and the range of opinion in those standing for Reform will be concomitantly lessened. Like a figure behind a curtain, Farage can be seen moving across the Overton Window.

Farage may have to start keeping his friends close and his enemies closer, as any sign of weakness in the leader of a party expected to form the next government will be interpreted as such, and in politics that means conflict and possible regicide. For now, Farage still wears the crown. However, like Macbeth in Dunsinane, the Reform leader grows increasingly isolated.