948 words
Part 2 of 2
On Sunday, the 9th of November (9N), an Independence Referendum was held in Catalonia. The poll has resulted in more than 2,300,000 votes cast.[1] The results break down as follows.
- Yes to independence: 80.76% (1,861,753 votes)
- Federal option for a Catalan State within Spain (Yes/No option): 10.07% (232,182 votes)
- No to Independence: 4.54% (104,772 votes)
The remaining 4% (approx.) of votes were blank or invalid. The total exact figure was 2,305,290 votes cast.
In this Referendum, unlike the Scottish referendum, there was a third option, a federal vote (“Yes/No” option) besides the “Yes” or “No” options.
As for participation, if we consider the 2014 European Election census of 5,318,296 (there was no official census because of the ban from the Spanish government), we can get an idea of how many voters approached the polling stations. In the European elections, held in June, participation was 47.63% (2,532,629 votes cast). Participation has been indeed far from the Scottish referendum, which got a figure higher than 80% of eligible voters. The fact that the referendum was not sanctioned by the Spanish government probably had an impact on the participation rate.
Since the referendum was banned, there was no permission to use the usual polling stations (schools). High schools were used instead, resulting in a very low number of polling stations (1,317, instead of almost three times as much that in normal elections). Ian Duncan, MEP for the British Conservative Party and spokesperson for the International Observers Delegation said in this regard: “the limitation in the number of Polling Stations has indeed influenced, and so have the adverse political circumstances. Nevertheless, I think that the process has been a success”[2].
The “Yes” option has attracted far more votes than the federal (“Yes/No”) or “No” options. The great disproportion can be explained by many different factors. On the one hand, it’s not difficult to imagine that many people, even some people in favor of an independent Catalan state, have probably been discouraged from voting, given the unofficial and thus non-binding status of the referendum. On the other hand, there has been an obvious boycott followed by most of those opposing Catalan independence and the right to self-determination.
Still, the result has been similar to the 2006 Referendum for the Autonomous Law, which attracted a similar support (1,899,897 votes). More significant is to compare the result with that of the last elections to the Catalan Parliament, with an impressive 70% participation. The outcome would be 55% in favor of the “Yes” option and 45% for the “No” option.
Here we can see other Referendums to serve as a reference:[3]
| Issue | Voters | Votes cast | Yes votes | No votes | % Yes | % No |
| 1978 Spanish Constitution | 4,389,173 | 2,986,726 | 2,701,870 | 137,845 | 90.46 | 4.62 |
| Referendum on joining NATO (1986) | 4,612,529 | 2,898,112 | 1,263,484 | 1,466.571 | 43.60 | 50.60 |
| European Constituition (2005) | 5,316,355 | 2,157,688 | 1,386,794 | 597,198 | 64.27 | 27.68 |
| Autonomous Law (2006) | 5,310,103 | 2,594,167 | 1,899,897 | 533,742 | 73.24 | 20.5 |
Consequences and Possible Next Steps
Many political analysts have pointed out that, beyond the massive turnout, it’s been significant that the Spanish Government, despite all the resources at hand (police, army, administration, economic power, state owned media) and also despite the suspension coming from the Spanish High Court, could not stop the referendum from taking place. It certainly wasn’t able to prevent millions of Catalans from going to the polling stations.
Again, we have to take the following into account. No official polling stations were open. The polling stations were manned by volunteers (40,000, with the backing of the Catalan government) rather than officials. Also, one should not underestimate the fear of the common citizen to take part in something that was being constantly publicized as “illegal.” Thus, we can state that the referendum was a massive act of disobedience.
Participation was far greater than the one million figure expected by the organizers. This makes this “informal” referendum a political act of utmost importance. Indeed, as a result a new political crisis is brewing in Spain, with the Prime Minister, Mr. Mariano Rajoy, in its center. The Spanish Prime Minister is well-known for sweeping problems under the carpet. But this time it seems that the problem is simply growing so big that many believe that he’s definitively dug his own political grave.
In the coming weeks the Catalan government could announce an election in the form of a plebiscite in case the Spanish government continues to block an official referendum.
It has to be taken into account that the support for having a referendum is growing day by day, exceeding by far those in favor of independence. In the words of an important mainstream Newspaper: “the number in favor of holding a referendum is far greater than the number supporting independence. This matters.”[4] At the same time, the pro-independence support seems to be growing too. If we look at the “Yes” vote figure of Sunday’s poll and we compare it to the votes cast by all the pro-independence parties together (CiU, ERC, CUP, and SI) in the 2012 elections to the Catalan Parliament, we see an increase from 1,787,656 votes to 1,861,753 in two years.
Still, many factors (old people, immigration, evolution of the economy) will determine the outcome of this conflict. What seems clear is that, unlike Scotland, the elderly are not voting contrary to pro-independence interests. Quite the contrary,[5] it seems that the “Yes” option has attracted wide support among them.
As for immigration, it could probably play against independence in a future Referendum, as in Scotland. Actually, some Catalan nationalists are already blaming multi-cultural nationalism for the “Yes” defeat in Scotland.[6]
All in all, it seems inevitable that an official Referendum of some sort will be agreed upon. But, still a “real,” not symbolic, referendum will be something very different from the one that has been held.
Meanwhile, 10 million Catalans, in Catalonia and neighboring areas, including Rosselló in the South of France, are holding their breath.
Notes
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/10/catalans-vow-push-independence-80-favour-split
http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20141110/54419122198/resultados-9n.html
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-10/catalonias-vote-was-a-success-now-negotiate
3. http://www.idescat.cat/dequavi/Dequavi?TC=444&V0=9&V1=6
http://www.ara.cat/en/Catalonia-sends-warning-massive-turnout_0_1246075508.html
5. http://www.324.cat/noticia/2524552/catalunya/La-gent-gran-tambe-ha-anat-a-votar
http://www.naciodigital.cat/noticia/77609/9-n/tamb/mobilitza/gent/gran
6. http://www.enricravellobarber.eu/2014/09/sobre-el-referendum-escoces.html#.VGHphTTF_UY
4 comments
Long live Catalonia, Flanders, England, Spain, Poland, Occitany, Euskalherria, Padania… Europe!
Dear Sirs,
The census was aroun 6,4 million because youngsters 16 or older were allowed to vote as were foreing people.
For the last two years the autonomous government of Catalonia has been sponsoring this vote for independence, spending millions on buying newsreporters, paying newspapers, tv stations, organizations, etc. (actually they have been moving in this direction for the last 30 years, but the last two years have been an incredible climax of brainswashing marketing techniques)
Nobody was scared to go to vote, on the contrary it was promoted to unimaginable limits.
It was is and will still be in the future a perfect case of mass population manipulation, with symbols, brainswashing, etc.
In spite of all this, SURPRISINGLY to many nationalists less thant 30% of the real 5,3 million census votes yes-yes to indepence. And I say also suprisingly because in Spain we are like in most parts of the world in a deep economic recession, and the Catalan separist movement has been trying for TWO years to convince people that with the secession from Spain there would be more MONEY for evertybody and this would be Dreamland. Catalan economists etc have invented a doctrine that with independece Catalonia would increase economically 10% per year, thing like that, and they are university professors. I don´t know and Catalan government will not disclose the amount of money they have spent.
But if you know how nationalism works, this of course will not end, and they will continue/continue/ continue like the battery advertisement.
I live in Barcelona so I know perfectly what I am talking about.
Dear Xavier,
You say that there have been used “brainswashing marketing techniques”. Why is it always someone else that ‘brainwashes’, ‘lies’, ‘manipulates’, etc, but never the Spanish imperialists (I don’t even dare call them nationalists)? Spain has been an Autarchic state for almost 40 years under Franco, and 30 more after that with all the resources at its hand. That’s a lot of time to tell Fairy tales, isn’t it? But despite this, the Catalan People has survived, keeping its language as the #1 language in Europe without State official status. May be it’s not all about brainwashing, uh?
You go on saying: “Nobody was scared to go to vote, on the contrary it was promoted to unimaginable limits”. Yeah, that’s why it was illegal and the Spanish army would be doing unusual ’exercises’ close to the largest populations (see:
http://www.naciodigital.cat/noticia/77316/ara/militars/osona
http://www.vilaweb.cat/noticia/4046429/20121010/video-maniobres-lexercit-espanyol-barcelona.html
http://www.vilaweb.cat/noticia/4208378/20140827/lexercit-espanyol-maniobres-militars-montseny.html
http://www.vilaweb.cat/noticia/4208378/20140827/lexercit-espanyol-maniobres-militars-montseny.html
http://societat.e-noticies.cat/lexercit-reforca-la-seva-presencia-a-catalunya-89692.html
And even removing pro-independence flags, etc (http://www.324.cat/noticia/2517483/altemporda/Lexercit-espanyol-es-disculpa-per-lafer-de-lestelada-estripada-al-Port-de-la-Selva and: http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2014/08/28/catalunya/1409255723_086317.html)
Then you say: “It was is and will still be in the future a perfect case of mass population manipulation, with symbols, brainswashing, etc.” I don’t get your point here. So to use symbols, etc is to ‘manipulate’? Are you taking Catalan people for little babies maybe?
You follow by saying: “In spite of all this, SURPRISINGLY to many nationalists less thant 30% of the real 5,3 million census votes yes-yes to indepence.” To me 1,8 million of ‘Yes-Yes’ votes from 5,3 is 34%, not “less than 30%”. The article already says that figure is what you get in many elections, and even the ruling party in Spain got less than that, so maybe it’s not that bad for a banned referendum…
Then you hit the nail in the head when you finally say: “But if you know how nationalism works, this of course will not end, and they will continue/continue/ continue like the battery advertisement.” Well, most people in this website see themselves as nationalists. If you don’t even consider yourself a nationalist, maybe I can start to understand your critique.
Then, you also say: “For the last two years the autonomous government of Catalonia has been sponsoring this vote for independence(…)”. The Autonomous Government, as the name implies, is dependent on its money from the Spanish Government. It actually gives the money it gets to the Spanish Government and gets less than 90% of that back. Everyone will understand that (even estimated by the Spanish Government) that 10% more income maybe won’t lead us to ‘Dreamland’ but you don’t have to b a maths expert to understand that 10% is a lot of money that can be used to improve your people’s standard of living. That’s all that’s being said. And rightly so.
Lastly, you say: “I live in Barcelona so I know perfectly what I am talking about.” So do I. I don’t only ‘live’ in Barcelona. I am from Barcelona. But I must admit that doesn’t mean that “I know perfectly what I am talking about”.
Hello Jordi,
“Spain has been an Autarchic state for almost 40 years under Franco, and 30 more after that with all the resources at its hand. That’s a lot of time to tell Fairy tales, isn’t it? But despite this, the Catalan People has survived, keeping its language as the #1 language in Europe without State official status. May be it’s not all about brainwashing, uh? ”
– What do you mean Catalan people have survived. Are they in peril? In my family there are many ‘Catalan people’ with all their last names Catalan, generations of Catalan last names, and they all feel Spanish, consider it their country, and love it. (an no, they were not Franquist, and none of them has worked for the Franco Governmente or any presente or past government) . And they have ‘survived’. Am I missing something here? Are you in some sort of peril? How many did not survive? I must be missing something here.
If by Catalan people you mean nationalists/ independist people, please note that this movemente began in the very late 1800’s, and was non-existant before, they were a handful of people and considered eccentric, at the least. Before this movemente the Catalan people were well aware they had survived. And with respect to Franco, please remember that many in Catalunya supported him, and when I say many, I mean more than 99%, and if not, ask your parents to tell you the truth.
Are catalans different from the rest of people from Spain. Well, they did not know this until the late 18th century, until then they knew they were Spanish, and from then on some of them think they are something else.
“30 more after that with all the resources at its hand”, ” the Autonomous Government, as the name implies, is dependent on its money from the Spanish Government. It actually gives the money it gets to the Spanish Government and gets less than 90% of that back.” :
– Please note that the Generalitat of Catalunya itself collects directly MORE THAN 50% of the taxes. If they are bankrupt, it is because of their complete mismanagement. Nationalism is their smokescreen. I am suprised you don´t know that the Catalan Generalitat itself directly gets more than 50% of its ‘income’ directly.
Spanish army would be doing unusual ’exercises’ ?
-If you live in Barcelona you know that you can see the military often running down the Diagonal doing their morning exercises or in the Tibidabo mountain. I don´t see why you are suprised, if you know the Spanish military, you also know they would be the first to defend you, and in many cases, the only ones. In other countries it would be unthinkable to consider that their own army does ‘unusual exercises’ , and I mean countries liek France, Germany, Finland. The Army is not there to bother you. Have they ever, only once in your life, bothered you? I think they were doing their normal exercises, and the photos have been taken out of context.
So to use symbols, etc is to ‘manipulate’? Are you taking Catalan people for little babies maybe?:
-Just look up how revolutions are organized today, there are plenty of books, videos articles. Of particular interest to you will be the modern ‘color revolutions’. Sound familiar? Let´s all put on the yellow shirt. Lets all hold our hands and make a big line. Let´s all tune our Catalan flag ‘cuban styel’. We are so modern and peaceful.
I didn´t say you are babies, because manipulation does not work on babies, it works on people like you. (and of course like me, I am sure I am manipulated by television, propaganda, politicians, etc, but most likely not in this case, although when you are manipulated you are usually the last one to be aware of it)
” 5,3 million census ”
– Yes, a huge amount of people went. But PLEASE be accurate. The census in this case was about 6,3 or 6,4 milliion people because as you know youngsters 16 of age and older could vote as well as inmigrants. The 5,3 million census is for normal elections like to the european parliamente in which 18 year olds and older people can vote and not inmigrants.
Yes, it will continue. A lot of people live off of this, and many are waiting for a reward. I think it is funny how the politicians, with all the money they earn, live off of this instead of solving other things, I just think they don´t know ho to solve them, I don´t either, but it would embarrass me to earn that amount of money and not be doing anything.
Anyway, you will probablye ‘win’ and get your independance.
And a I will become a foreigner in my own land.
But….
As Otto von Bismark said: ‘I am firmly convinced that Spain is the strongest country of the world. Century after century trying to destroy herself and still no success’
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