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Print April 4, 2022 18 comments

So Much Winning in Hungary

John Morgan

László Toroczkai on election night.

2,257 words

Czech version here

As I related in my previous article explaining the background to yesterday’s national election in Hungary, expectations on the Right were modest going into it. While the polls indicated that Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party would most likely win a fourth consecutive term in office (his fifth overall), polls are often wrong. Many feared that the Left-liberal opposition, which for the first time was acting as a united bloc, could unseat him, or at the very least reduce Fidesz’s support and deny them a supermajority in Parliament, as they have enjoyed continuously since 2010. The Left’s anger at Orbán’s lengthy domination of the country has been building and it was widely believed that this would motivate liberal voters to turn out in unprecedented numbers.

It appeared even more likely — again, according to the polls — that the new radical Right party, Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland), which was formed shortly after the 2018 election to fill the void left by the radical Right-turned-liberal center-Right party Jobbik, would fail to garner the 5% of the votes needed to enter Parliament.

These predictions were wrong. Massively wrong.

Orbán handily won reelection by a huge margin: 53.1% of the votes cast, as opposed to 35.04% for United for Hungary, the opposition’s coalition. This was Fidesz’s biggest result since the second round of the 2010 election that brought it to power (53.81%), when Hungary still had a two-round system. This will give Fidesz 135 seats in Parliament (of 199), up from 133, and also means they will retain their two-thirds supermajority, which allows them to enact legislation without needing the cooperation of any other party. The united opposition — for as long as it manages to remain united — will have 57 MPs.

In his victory speech Sunday night, Orbán said that “[w]e have won such a great victory that it can be seen from the Moon, and certainly from Brussels,” pointing out that Fidesz had succeeded in overcoming not only the domestic opposition but also a host of liberal opponents abroad, singling out George Soros; Orbán said that all the money Soros has spent in opposing him has been his “worst investment.”

Fidesz’s surprising retention of its supermajority will be welcomed by Fidesz supporters, but even those who take a more objective viewpoint from the Right, including this writer, wonder if it is entirely a good thing. Fidesz has enjoyed unchallenged power for so long now that there is a danger that it could grow complacent. It will certainly not be under as much pressure to adopt a more dynamic program that takes the sometimes legitimate concerns of the other parties and constituencies into account. It has also used this power to make some questionable decisions; it is their supermajority which allowed them to effortlessly enact Hungary’s fairly draconian anti-COVID measures since March 2020, for example (not that the opposition parties, apart from Mi Hazánk, ever offered any resistance to these measures). Be that as it may, Fidesz will enjoy this freedom for another four years.

The participation of eligible voters was 67.8%, which was actually slightly lower than in 2018 (68.13%), which likewise suggests that the anticipated enthusiasm among anti-Orbán voters did not materialize. Fidesz was even successful in winning in some districts of Budapest, most of which is traditionally a Left-wing bastion.

This is a crushing defeat for Hungary’s liberal-Left coalition, which had anticipated that acting as a unified force and adopting a new style, as represented by their Prime Ministerial candidate, Péter Márki-Zay (who had American campaign advisors), and once again presenting themselves as “the last chance against the Orbán dictatorship” would be a powerful combination that Orbán would not be able to overcome. In fact, as things turned out, the liberal-Left opposition parties were more successful in 2018, running as separate and independent parties, than they were this time acting in unison. And to add insult to injury, Mr. Márki-Zay actually lost to his Fidesz opponent, János Lázár, by a wide margin (52.37% to 39.58%) for a parliamentary seat in the fourth constituency of Csongrád-Csanád County, which includes the small city of Hódmezővásárhely, where Márki-Zay has been Mayor since 2015.

It was anticipated that in the event of defeat, the six-party liberal-Left coalition would accuse Fidesz of election fraud. The margin of victory is so large, however, that it makes such claims simply untenable. Their messaging in the immediate aftermath has instead been to blame Fidesz for establishing an unequal playing field during the campaign itself, such as by allegedly restricting access among the public to opposing points of view, rather than to question the conduct of the election itself.

Other opposition leaders wasted no time in attempting to distance themselves from Márki-Zay’s failure, leaving him alone on the platform to deliver his painful televised concession speech last night to a sparse crowd of supporters. Péter Jakab, the leader of Jobbik, blamed Márki-Zay by name on Monday, and Ferenc Gyurcsány, the President of the Democratic Coalition (DK) and the long-standing éminence grise of the Hungarian liberal Left, claimed that the candidate had “not been a good captain.” Jakab insisted on the importance of maintaining a united opposition going forward in order to continue to challenge Fidesz’s supremacy, but many are already questioning how long the bloc can possibly last given the stinging rebuke they have received, especially among rivals who have an established history of turning on each other once the elections are past.

You can buy North American New Right vol. 2 here

But perhaps the most encouraging takeaway from the election was the success of Hungary’s new radical Right party, Mi Hazánk, which passed the 5% threshold for entering Parliament with 6.17% of the vote, garnering them six MPs. Despite some promising poll results late last year, most polling since the beginning of this year had put them at only 2-3% — but polling is often wrong, especially when it comes to the smaller Right-wing parties in Hungary. Mi Hazánk’s leader, László Toroczkai, chose to focus his campaign on opposition to the government’s anti-COVID policies, but given that Orbán had opted to take a much softer approach in recent months, culminating in the cancellation of all COVID measures last month, it was thought that few voters would still have concern about this issue uppermost in their minds. As it turned out, it may be that some Hungarian voters are worried that the COVID saga is not yet over. It is also certainly the case that there are many people on the Right in Hungary who have been longing for a stronger Right-wing alternative to Fidesz’s style of classical liberal conservatism. It is to be hoped that Mi Hazánk can now help to influence Fidesz into moving further to the Right, as it may have already done with Fidesz’s new child protection law, as I discussed in my previous article.

Mi Hazánk’s result is particularly impressive given that this is the first national election they have participated in. For comparison, Mi Hazánk’s predecessor, Jobbik, won only 1.7% of the vote as part of a coalition of small Right-wing parties in 2006, the first national election it fought in. The reason for this contrast may be that Mi Hazánk’s leaders were all well-known nationally for years before the formation of the party, and/or that conditions are riper for the growth of such a party now than they were in April 2006.

It’s also worth noting that Mi Hazánk’s success came despite Facebook’s decision to delete the party’s pages on that platform only a few days prior to the election, something which the party has promised to address through legal channels.

For its part, Jobbik has lost its place as Hungary’s largest opposition party, a position it has held since the 2014 election, winning only 9 MPs — down from 17, and putting it only three seats ahead of its younger rival. The main opposition party in the new government will be the Democratic Coalition, led by Orbán’s old nemesis Ferenc Gyurcsány, with 17 seats, meaning that Hungarian politics will now once again be defined by a conflict between Orbán and the liberal Left in which the same actors as in the contentious 2000s will take the leading roles — only with their parts reversed. Jobbik’s losses suggest that they have lost most of their original Right-wing base and have been unable to appeal to more centrist voters by adopting a new, “softer” program and closely allying with the liberal Left in recent years.

The other element of the election worth noting, and the only slightly sour note of the night, was that a referendum on Hungary’s child protection law, which was enacted last year and prohibits the promotion of the LGBTQ agenda to those under 18, was concurrently held. Although 92.34% of those who voted on it decided in favor of the law, it nevertheless failed because fewer than the required 50% of voters participated in the referendum. This was undoubtedly because of a deliberate sabotage campaign by liberal voters, many of whom left the referendum form blank or did not even ask for it, knowing that giving the referendum the requisite number of participants would grant a victory to Fidesz. This will have no effect on the law itself, however, which is already in force, and the highly supportive result, even if not binding, will nevertheless serve to bolster the government’s defense of it against critics, both at home and in Brussels.

The question all political observers will be asking in the coming weeks and months is how Hungary, which was widely expected at home and abroad to move leftward, ended up swinging even further to the Right. There were several factors in play, including the opposition’s gross incompetence that was fully on display throughout the campaign, but a crucial factor was undoubtedly the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Public opinion polls in recent weeks showed that a large majority of voters agree with Orbán’s staunchly neutral stance on the conflict and also have more trust in his ability to guide the country in a time of international crisis than his opponent’s.

Further, as one Hungarian professional political commentator put it to this writer (and an assessment which several other Hungarians I spoke to agree with), Hungarians have a long history of saying “fuck you” to whoever they perceive as insulting them and trying to pressure them into doing things that go against their interests. This has most definitely been the case in Hungary’s relations with Brussels in recent years, and also with Ukraine. Last week Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, called Hungary out for its neutral stance and its unwillingness to take a stronger stand against Russia, accusing the Hungarians of opposing “humanity and common sense” in refraining from committing fully to supporting Ukraine. Some Hungarian observers even suspect that Zelensky was put up to making the accusations by political actors in the United States and/or Western Europe in an attempt to influence the election. Hungarians react badly to such attempts at manipulation, however, and thus the vote can in part be seen as a “fuck you” to both the European Union and Ukraine.

Those who fail to understand Hungary’s reluctance to get more directly involved in the war are usually not aware of the fact that Ukraine has been extremely hostile to its Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia, a region which was part of Hungary for over a thousand years but was incorporated into Ukraine by Stalin in 1946. The most prominent example of this hostility is the passage of Ukraine’s language law, which affects not only the Hungarians but other minorities in the country as well, requiring them to study exclusively in the Ukrainian language in schools and to conduct all official business in Ukrainian. There have also been cases of harassment and even physical attacks on Hungarians in Transcarpathia by Ukrainian nationalists. These issues are of great concern to many Hungarians. In January, several weeks before the outbreak of war, Hungary’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Péter Szijjártó, stated that any assistance Hungary would give to Ukraine in the event of a crisis could only be “limited” given the country’s icy relations with them in recent years.

The thesis of the role played by the war in the election result seems borne out by the fact that, in Orbán’s victory speech last night, he specifically mentioned “the Ukrainian President” as one of the opponents Fidesz had had to overcome in the course of its campaign. Thus, it seems unlikely that, short of an expansion of the war outside Ukraine, Hungary will be altering its neutral stance or ending its extensive trade relations with Russia. Vladimir Putin sent his congratulations to Orbán on Monday for his victory, expressing the hope that Hungarian-Russian relations would continue to be positive “despite the current difficult international situation.”

In related news, Orbán’s ally in Belgrade, Aleksandar Vučić and his populist-Right Serbian Progressive Party, won reelection in neighboring Serbia on the same day, guaranteeing that Hungary will continue to have a friendly government there — something which is important given that Hungary has few political allies in Europe.

Hungary now stands politically well-positioned to continue to act as a beacon of the Right throughout the world by presenting a rare success story in both Fidesz and Mi Hazánk. “The whole world could see here in Budapest tonight that Christian Democratic policies, conservative civic policies, and patriotic policies have won,” as Orbán said in his victory speech. “We’re sending the message to Europe that this is not the past, this is the future. This will be our shared European future. The whole world can see that Hungarians love their country.”

It is fervently hoped that Hungarian Rightists will seize this hard-won opportunity to take their “illiberal” counter-revolution even further and deeper in the years to come.

*  *  *

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Tags

2022 Hungarian national electionAleksandar VučićBudapestCOVID-19 pandemicEuropean UnionFerenc GyurcsányFideszHungarians in UkraineHungaryHungary child protection lawJobbikJohn MorganLászló ToroczkaiMi HazánkPéter Márki-ZayRussiaRusso-Ukrainian WarSerbiaSerbian Progressive PartyTranscarpathiaUkraineUkraine crisisUkraine WarUnited for HungaryViktor OrbánVladimir PutinVolodymyr ZelenskyWar in Ukraine

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18 comments

  1. Varyag says:
    April 4, 2022 at 4:53 pm

    So long as Mi Hazánk performs well, I’m happy. The good news is that even if the opposition had won a majority, they seem too fractitious to do much damage. Thankfully, with Toroczkai’s party in Parliament, it (hopefully) won’t take an electoral route like that to keep Orban from taking his voters for granted.
    One thing I have to wonder, though, is how members of the Orban government is reacting/will react to the challenge its getting from the right. Will they allow Mi Hazánk to continue growing its share of the vote, or will they abuse their power to try and cripple it (as we have seen happen to Dissident Right parties/movements elsewhere in Europe)?

  2. James J. O'Meara says:
    April 4, 2022 at 5:18 pm

    “Although 92.34% of those who voted on it decided in favor of the law, it nevertheless failed”

    A textbook example of “our democracy” in action!

     

    1. Weave says:
      April 4, 2022 at 7:23 pm

      Yep. Same thing in California where the people voted against gay marriage but a couple of Judges knew better.

      1. John Morgan says:
        April 5, 2022 at 6:23 am

        This isn’t a matter of judicial interference; the Hungarian constitution stipulates that a referendum has to be voted on by at least 50% of eligible voters in order to be valid. The migration referendum in 2016 failed for the same reason, although it had no effect on policy. The government knows beforehand that these referendums won’t succeed but they do them anyway since they know that a huge majority of people who do vote on it will vote in favor of their legislation.

        If it were a matter for the courts to decide, that would help Fidesz, since they’ve solidly packed them with judges loyal to them over the past 12 years.

  3. Weave says:
    April 4, 2022 at 7:31 pm

    Being able to be super duper gay is sure important to some folks. Any idiot could have predicted the day it would become a crime to be straight. It’s the day right after it became a crime to be white. And oh, the rueful laugh I will have when all the liberal honkey Karens realize their useful days are done. “But I’m one of the good ones!!” will be met with a Will Smith slap or worse.

  4. Eric says:
    April 4, 2022 at 8:33 pm

    HU´RA GYO¨ZELEM! (HOORAH VICTORY!)

  5. Trollope says:
    April 4, 2022 at 8:48 pm

    John Morgan’s reporting has been superb.I am happy that Orban has done so well and that Our Homeland has entered parliament.The Hungarian voters like a nationalist populist approach and will not be bulldozed into supporting anti-Russian globalist pawn Zelensky.The MSM reporting has been grotesquely biased.No one can take The BBC,Guardian,NYT etc. seriously.They are liars.This election is good  for many reasons(one of the best is Soros must not be in a great mood).Morgan has done the best reporting on this race of any source I have read.Thank you.

    1. John Morgan says:
      April 5, 2022 at 6:24 am

      You’re welcome!

  6. Oil Can Harry says:
    April 4, 2022 at 11:06 pm

    “I have been saying for the past year that US conservatives should come to Hungary to learn from Orban and Fidesz. Orban is not a small-government Anglo-Saxon conservative. He believes in using the power of the state to strengthen families, the basis of any health society. But the most important thing US conservatives can learn is how to use political power to fight the culture war — and not in the most obvious ways, such as with the referendum. Orban is a country boy who knows very well how the Left dominates culture here in Hungary, especially cultural institutions. And he understands, in ways that elude American conservative politicians, how the soft power wielded by the Left in those institutions changes society in progressive ways. This is why for all the political victories the GOP has racked up over the past few decades, the broader society and culture has continued its accelerating drift leftward.

    {snip}

    The call now among some Republican commentators for the state to take action against Disney, to revoke its special privileges on copyright to retaliate for its indoctrination of American children, is a pure Orban move. We need to see more of it. Republicans have been so prostrate before Big Business that they have sat there like idiots while Woke Capitalism organizes to turn conservative values of faith and the traditional family into pariahs among the young. Either we on the Right will learn from Viktor Orban how to use politics to fight this, or we will be defeated.”

    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/viktor-viktorious/

  7. Freddy says:
    April 5, 2022 at 1:56 am

    The described reaction of Hungarian voters to attempts at political blackmail from abroad makes them even more sympathetic than they already were to me.
    The fall of Jobbik is a just punishment for the betrayal on their right-wing constituents some years ago. At the same time, I am all the more pleased about the rise of Mi Hazank, who will hopefully be able to keep Fidesz from drifting towards the liberal center in the years to come. A role that Jobbik should have had in the past.
    Finally, it should be noted that polls carried out in the run-up to elections, even in Hungary, cannot be trusted. As in Western Europe, these are obviously launched specifically as attempts at manipulation.

  8. Muhammad Aryan says:
    April 5, 2022 at 3:31 am

    My question is directed to Hungarians here:

    What do you make of Hungary’s observer status in the Organization of Turkic States and Orban’s drift towards Turanism?

    1. Vehmgericht says:
      April 6, 2022 at 4:24 am

      Why did the Magyars become Christian and not Moslem? Did they migrate too far west?

  9. Jud Jackson says:
    April 5, 2022 at 4:01 am

    There is a strong bond of friendship between the Hungarians and the Poles that goes back centuries, I think.  I still hear this today when I speak to my Hungarian friends.  Many go to Poland for their vacations and likewise many Poles come here.  I hope the different reactions of the Poles and the Hungarians to the Ukraine/Russian situation will not hurt the friendship between these two very important V4 countries.  The Nationalist Right needs a strong V4 which I hope will expand to a V5 and V6 eventually.  Serbia looks like it could possibly be the country to make it into a V5.

    1. John Morgan says:
      April 5, 2022 at 6:31 am

      I don’t think it will have any long-term effect on the Polish-Hungarian relationship. I heard on Sunday from a Hungarian foreign policy expert that the Polish government has already voiced their understanding of Hungary’s relationship with Russia, even if they don’t like it. But the V4 was in trouble already even before the war, due to the leftward changes in government in Prague and Bratislava, and hence Orbán’s loss of his allies there, over the past two years.

  10. James Tucker says:
    April 5, 2022 at 7:33 am

    Great news! I expected Orban to win, but the Homeland Movement’s seven seats were a welcome suprise. Orban is the most democratically legitimate leader in the EU right now.

    Since the regime insists on denouncing its enemies as threats to democracy, we would be wise to appropriate that rhetoric for ourselves. Since they insist that democracy is the only legitimate basis of government, let us hold them to that. How can we live under the ‘rule of the people’ when multicultural governments deny the very existence of the people? If there is no American or German or British people, what is it even supposed to mean for them to rule themselves? Democracy is utterly meaningless and incoherent outside of a nationalist context. A people that cannot even define itself cannot possibly hope to rule itself. You cannot reconcile egalitarianism and inclusivity with the self-rule of a people. And if the people is defined as a ‘proposition nation’ then no one that dissents can claim to be part of that people. Not a very ‘democratic’ way of defining the people. If the regime wants to insist that society be purged of ‘threats to democracy,’ then let us hold the regime and its sick ideology up to a mirror!

    My own (uninformed and polemical compared to the excellent and informative article here) thoughts on the Hungarian election:

    https://gab.com/JamesTucker9178/posts/108068896443658196

  11. Anthony Bavaria says:
    April 7, 2022 at 3:34 am

    This is all great news. Are there any other European countries making similar progress? I remember reading of some hype about Salvini and the Lega Nord several years back, but can’t think of much else right now.

    1. John Morgan says:
      April 7, 2022 at 6:33 am

      The only other European country that can be seen as being in any way comparable to Hungary politically is Poland, but PiS’s (the ruling party) position is quite precarious at the moment, unlike Orbán’s, and also they are more problematic on certain issues, such as immigration (they let in tons of foreign workers through the back door) and international relations (always cucking as hard as possible for the US no matter what). There are other populist Right parties throughout Europe, of course, but they either lack the degree of power that Fidesz has and/or they are more liberal. Salvini and Lega have cucked hard in recent years; Brothers of Italy is the better Right-wing choice in Italy now.

      1. Anthony Bavaria says:
        April 8, 2022 at 11:32 am

        Damn. Thanks for the rundown!

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