Dr. John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism  is the premier theoretical framework for international relations. His emphasis on uncertainty and its disruptive influence on world politics gives insight into the Ukraine disaster.
The international system is anarchic. Plans of hostile states are unknowable. There’s no “911” for states to dial in case of an attack.
Uncertainty makes states fearful, and if you’re confident in your strength, you answer threats with force. Seeing the 51st state  on its doorstep  scares Russia, so it attacked. Irrational behavior? I don’t think so , since it went to great lengths by Great Power standards to avoid war. How would  America treat Canada  if it was conspiring  to park the People’s Liberation Army  in Montreal? Could this treatment be considered unprovoked? 
There’s a comparison to be made between military powers and dangerous wildlife. Park rangers tell you to treat grizzlies in Yellowstone and rattlesnakes in Yosemite the same. “They only attack people when we scare them. Keep your distance, and you’ll be fine.” As Mearsheimer said in his recent lecture : “If you take a stick and poke a bear in the eye, that bear is probably not going to smile and laugh at what you’re doing. That bear will fight back, and that bear will tear apart Ukraine. It is in the process of tearing apart Ukraine.”
To bring peace to Ukraine, Americans must know how we got here. The United States has been poking the bear since its 1999 extension of NATO to former Soviet bloc countries.
- 1999 and 2004 – Russia bitterly accepted NATO membership from former Soviet bloc states. In 1999, Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic. In 2004, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
- First Major Crisis – 2008 – Russia intervened in Georgia against neocon  attack on Pro-Russian separatists  plotted by John McCain and “close friend” Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. Russia issued a sharp warning against Georgian and Ukrainian NATO membership as “direct provocations,”  a position it’s maintained since without policy adjustment from the United States.
- Second Major Crisis – 2014 – The United States committed an “assault on democracy ” by executing  the overthrow of fairly elected  Moscow-friendly President Yanukovych. Russia retaliated by annexing Crimea and fostering civil war in Donbass.
- Third Major Crisis – 2021 – The United States made Ukraine NATO member in all but name . The United States armed and trained Ukrainians . Ukraine used Turkish drones  against Pro-Russian forces. Britain drove a destroyer  through Russian territorial waters on the Black Sea. The United States flew bombers  near the Russian coast. In November, Russia had reached its boiling point .
Washington knew the risks.  Now they’d like to bleed Russia white  enough to paint Orange Revolution on Moscow . If American Pravda  cared for Ukrainian lives, wouldn’t it wave the Russian flag to “end war immediately”  for public consideration? Instead, CNN gun grab activists  cheer on  Zelensky’s push to arm civilians  with Molotov Cocktails. Facing civilian soldiers , what else will Russia do but turn Kievs to Stalingrads. 
Since Making Russia Ukraine Again isn’t Moscow’s plan, I predict Russia will win . Russia’s GDP is smaller than Texas’s and Putin is too smart to swallow a porcupine. Russia is fighting for something close to what it said its fighting for. Ukrainian neutrality, the separatist republics, and Crimea .
Placing nuclear forces on high alert  was a message to the United States on Russian resolve. Putin sees survival at stake, and won’t go quietly. We aren’t near Russian surrender, and its military has lots of charge in its battery.  The chance of nuclear strikes must be taken seriously. 
If Americans knew the true story, they would support peace. The United States could make light work of bringing Ukraine to a tolerable settlement. They’re choosing to risk nuclear war instead.
For the good of its nation, and Europe, Ukraine should grant Russian demands  on the condition overreach will be met with all-out resistance. Fighting Russia to the bitter end won’t give Ukraine the government it deserves . Their civilization  will turn savage, and “winning” would eternalize dependence  on amoral Yanquis who care for Ukraine solely as a chess piece.
Let me be clear. This is not a pro-Putin statement. My admiration for Ukrainians defending their homeland should go without saying. But how can we support a cause  led by the group  replacing our people for sport?  The primary author of Zelensky’s War  is the United States government —the mortal enemy of Europeans. 
I am a racial idealist  who values Ukrainians and Russians equally. But in politics, before you chase ideals, you must follow objective factors. Joining NATO will corrupt and endanger Ukraine even further, and it’s not regaining separatist areas or Crimea. Accepting Russia’s terms is the best available solution for Europeans.
Russia knows who it must run to  for leverage with the United States. America gives Israel four billion dollars  yearly, fights its wars, and still can’t get it to condemn  their hated enemy. Israel holds no strategic value  to the United States yet remains unharmed for neutrality. Instead, “little Israel” is applauded by the press for “stepping up.”
Meanwhile, a mighty nation we greatly  depend on is threatened for neutrality.  The United States is intervening with a death wish against a Russian power it could’ve partnered with. China, which won’t accept  submission in its region, will exploit American arrogance. Chinese hegemony in Asia will wreck the liberal world order and unlock nationalism  in the West.
American elites are running out of time as world police. Their home base is imploding , and while remaining fearsome tacticians , their strategic bearings are spent. The Great Delusion is fading out, and new orders will rise from groups with the strength to build them.
To ordinary American patriots : Don’t look for the Republicans to save you. They have not stopped The Great Replacement , terrorism , war , skyrocketing black crime , financial calamity , BLM rioting, and COVID . Now they are the loudest voices calling for World War III. All these follies would end if white populists were in charge. Time to give us a chance.  A pack of wolves has nothing to fear  from a den of vipers. Our war ends the day you decide to wake up, white man.
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