Trump Should Wargame Secession, Too

2,474 words

Earlier this month, the New York Times revealed that top-level Democrats have been wargaming possible outcomes of the November 2020 election and are considering secession ^[1] if things don’t go their way. This should come as a surprise to no one. Since the epoch-changing ^[2] George Floyd riots — which began in May and are still ongoing — America has endured its greatest, most destructive, and most painful social hemorrhaging since the Civil War. That a second civil war might very well be on the horizon — given all the uncertainties surrounding the upcoming election, COVID-19, and racial unrest — wargaming such an eventuality not only makes sense, it’s downright prudent.

Much has been written about the Floyd riots and their entirely fraudulent origins ^[3]. As we all know, the far-Left has manufactured unrest ^[4] through generous donations to terrorist organizations such as Antifa and Black Lives Matter, and also through its methodical destruction of not just our cities, but of the social trust and civic competence that goes into maintaining them. They are blaming police ^[5], but point to chimeras such as “systemic racism” and “white supremacy” as the real villains in their cartoonishly Manichean and black supremacist ^[6] worldview. That these riots have in fact caused crime to spike in many cities, resulting in even greater numbers of blacks being killed ^[7] (the very people whose lives are supposed to matter), makes no difference to the Left. They do this because they can ^[8] — because they hate whites, they hate nationalism, they hate traditionalism, and because they hate everyone in power who isn’t them.

The focal point of the Left’s hatred is, of course, President Trump. Regardless of what Trump has accomplished as Commander in Chief, they see him as the representative of white collective interests, and therefore someone who must be destroyed. And they are not entirely wrong. No president since Ronald Reagan (or maybe even Dwight Eisenhower) has been as implicitly aligned with white racial interests as Donald Trump. That he appeared virtually out of nowhere in the second decade of the twenty-first century to roll back leftward gains and to remind whites that they do indeed have collective interests after all. . . well, that was just too much for many on the Left to bear.

That Trump is at best a tolerable champion of white America (and, at worst, no better than any other cuckservative, back-stabbing Republican) makes no difference to the Left as well. Their anti-white racism is so complete they have no interest in such picayune distinctions. In fact, they are so consumed by hatred that their leadership in the Democrat Party is not even trying to hide the fact that it wishes to dissolve the Union if it cannot stop Donald Trump:

But conveniently, a group of former top government officials called the Transition Integrity Project actually gamed four possible scenarios, including one that doesn’t look that different from 2016: a big popular win for Mr. Biden, and a narrow electoral defeat, presumably reached after weeks of counting the votes in Pennsylvania. For their war game, they cast John Podesta, who was Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman, in the role of Mr. Biden. They expected him, when the votes came in, to concede, just as Mrs. Clinton had.

But Mr. Podesta, playing Mr. Biden, shocked the organizers by saying he felt his party wouldn’t let him concede. Alleging voter suppression, he persuaded the governors of Wisconsin and Michigan to send pro-Biden electors to the Electoral College.

In that scenario, California, Oregon, and Washington then threatened to secede from the United States if Mr. Trump took office as planned. The House named Mr. Biden president; the Senate and White House stuck with Mr. Trump. At that point in the scenario, the nation stopped looking to the media for cues, and waited to see what the military would do.

When one-half of a nation’s major political parties is seriously considering secession prior to a presidential election, you know that that nation’s future is in doubt. To assume that the American political system, which was designed when whites held a demographic supermajority, will survive the next few elections as non-whites take up an ever-increasing share of the population is simply naïve. Something’s gotta give, and by November 2020 there is a slim yet not-nothing chance that the Democratic Party — the representative of non-white collective interests — will be willing to give it.

Faced with such an adversary, Trump and his people should wargame what would happen if the Democrats do resort to extralegal means to get what they want post-election. In the case of Trump winning unambiguously with the divide between him and Joe Biden being too great to be fudged, we can assume that any Left-wing secession efforts would be half-hearted and easily crushed (and therefore likely not attempted). This will be good for the Right and good for America, but it won’t save America. This will only give American whites more time to prepare for that fateful day when America finally does break apart roughly along racial lines.

Likewise, there would be no Left-wing secession if Joe Biden wins unambiguously. In this case, the Left would get what it wants, which is to assume absolute power, take pitiless revenge against the Right, and pull the anti-white day of reckoning as close to the present as possible. Since such a scenario does not involve Left-wing secession, wargaming it falls beyond the scope of this essay. The topic of Right-wing secession, on the other hand, will be dealt with in part two of this series.

The likeliest scenario involving Left-wing secession would be the one described above: Trump wins a squeaker via the electoral college but loses the popular vote. Biden (on the advice of his hard-Left handlers) refuses to concede and pulls enough strings to get the House to declare for the Dems. Meanwhile, the Senate and Executive Branch plop for Trump. This would truly be a “house divided,” and the Left would ascribe to itself the political capital to call for exit of the Left Coast. In this circumstance, History would be opening up a gateway for decisive action that could potentially change everything forever. Anyone with enough vision, money, manpower, and chutzpah could march through it and into the history books. An extreme example would be an Army general putting down riots in several cities and then crowning himself emperor à la Napoleon. What could anyone do to stop him?

Absent such a third-party intrusion or any eventuality involving foreign invasion or nuclear weapons (which would be much trickier to predict at this point), Trump’s wargame must entail the Left Coast declaring itself its own nation rather than submitting to another four years of low unemployment, favorable trade deals, and media-trolling under Trump. Now, my first instinct would be to say, “let them go.” Good riddance to bad garbage, and all that. From a Right-wing perspective, what downside could there possibly be to losing twenty-to-thirty million Leftists, Democrats, and liberals, a sizeable portion of whom would be non-white? Greg Johnson wrote an excellent analysis ^[10] of this phenomenon — known as Calexit — after Trump’s victory in 2016. “In short, after Calexit, there would be fewer but better Americans,” he wrote.

From a white nationalist perspective, this is as true now as ever. But from the perspective of Donald Trump, who will have to deal with how the country has changed since 2016, simply letting the Left Coast go would not be as simple as it would seem. Without California, Washington, and Oregon, being a Leftist of any stripe in America would cease to have a point. The electoral loss of those three states alone would shift the rest of the country so far to the Right to make it completely intolerable for most left-of-center people. If we lose the Left Coast, any wargame scenario should include the likely possibility of East Coast blue states cashing in their chips as well. This would include large portions of the mid-Atlantic states and New England. And what about blue cities in otherwise red states, such as Chicago and Houston? What about states in the former Confederacy that are over a quarter black, such as Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, and Mississippi? What about border states in the Southwest that are almost as Mexican as they are white? A hung election could trigger massive unrest in those places which could dwarf the Floyd riots.

If the Democrats are wargaming secession, Trump would be remiss not to count on Antifa and BLM doing so as well. At this point, we must assume that these terrorist organizations already have plans in place to demolish bridges, dams, and infrastructure in red states in order to disorganize, demoralize, and hobble the Right once hostilities begin. This is their kind of warfare, and if they can shut off the lights in Topeka, Kansas the day before a city-wide, anti-white pogrom, so much the better for them. Essentially, we would have to assume that the far Left will stop at nothing to gain control of this country.

How is a president going to handle all of this? By letting the Left Coast go, Trump would be ensuring the death of the country he had sworn to serve. This would be entering uncharted territory with unfathomable chaos and complications ahead. Who knows how that would turn out? On the other hand, not letting the Left Coast go would require unleashing the military upon domestic enemies. This tactic may very well lead to civil war, depending upon the fitness and loyalty of the US military and the strength and will of the insurgents.

Best case scenario, Trump crushes them with reasonable casualties. The insurgency, like the Civil War, has a beginning and end, after which we have a formal surrender and a return to the status quo, such as it is. Furthermore, a well-armed and motivated red state populace organizes enough to resist whatever attacks the insurgents plan for them.

Worst case scenario, the US military struggles with a well-funded and ruthless insurgency that spreads havoc and terror in dozens of locations. The military, the national guard, and the police suffer from poor leadership and lack of cohesion thanks to decades of affirmative action and are hamstrung by their own politically correct rules and regs. Defeat after defeat eventually increases sympathy for the insurgents until a critical mass of the US fighting forces actually switches sides. After all, everyone loves a winner. And if backing the faster horse would mean a quicker resolution to the hostilities, then so be it. Then secession would no longer be on the table. Control of Washington, DC would be. By taking the insurgency on directly, Trump would be, in effect, risking everything.

Bill Clinton never had to contemplate anything as bloodcurdling when launching hellfire in Waco, Texas. Only President Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis may have carried a greater burden. But Kennedy’s situation was nothing like Trump’s wargame, and so little can be learned from it as a precedent. To find a precedent, one would have to go back to Abraham Lincoln himself.

I’m sure that if Trump ever wargames Left-wing secession, he’ll employ top experts with a better handle on the specifics than I have. They will likely have a more accurate understanding of the enemy’s strength as well as the military’s. Such planning, if done competently, would be worth infinitely more than my armchair spit-balling. However, the best chance of solving a problem requires a complete understanding of that problem before any attempts are made to solve it. Trump’s experts could wargame with the best possible data twelve hours a day from now until the election, but if they don’t truly understand the problem then it’s possible they’ll find themselves going into hiding the day that Lenin’s successor sets foot in the White House.

And what exactly is the problem? Due to America’s increasing racial diversity, the tribalist nature of human beings, and the reality of racial differences, America is becoming ungovernable. And no amount of MAGA hat, civic-nationalist rah-rah is going to change that. This is an irreversible process. To try to stop it militarily would be pure folly. Better to climb aboard that crazy train and steer it away from the cliff than attempt to stop it in its tracks.

When wargaming this problem, a proper understanding points to one solution with an excellent chance of averting catastrophe. (Sadly, this is the one Trump will least likely consider, but I will present it anyway.) Trump, upon a close victory in November, should anticipate Left-wing secession and then. . . get this. . . sweeten the deal. California, Washington, and Oregon want to secede? Great. But why don’t we also let New York south and east of Albany go as well? And most of New England. And Philadelphia, New Jersey, DC, and Northern Virginia, too. They could all be part of one country if they want, separated by thousands of miles, sort of like Pakistan and Bangladesh once upon a time. In any case, Trump’s people should know ahead of time what territory a post-America America can cede to the enemy and what territory it can’t, and then bargain accordingly. By dictating the terms of the split, Trump will be avoiding much of the chaos and complications mentioned above.

Do the blacks want reparations? Trump should be prepared to give them exactly that in return for a black homeland in Georgia and South Carolina, to which all red-state blacks must go. Win-win for them, right? And in the Southwest, I’m sure it wouldn’t take much to initiate Reconquista in parts of New Mexico and Arizona which effectively belong to the Mexicans anyway.

In return, Trump should make a few non-negotiable demands such as an even partition of the military and the debt as well as a reasonable timeframe in which to allow a peaceful transfer of populations. He should also demand that legacy, red-state America (which he would presumably lead for a time) return to its pre-1965 demographics. He should enshrine that sentiment in law and in his country’s new constitution. He should also make it abundantly clear that if these demands are not met and the Left still wishes to secede, he will bomb blue city after blue city until they realize the wisdom of doing business with Donald Trump.

It will be a difficult offer to refuse, and a clever trick to boot since it will enable Donald Trump to wargame without a war.

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